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Market Commentary

September 2, 2015

Scott L. Wren, Senior Global Equity Strategist

Weekly update on current stock market action

  • Volatile markets are responding to uncertainties surrounding global growth and the timing of a potential Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike this year.

What it may mean for investors

  • We expect the stock market to remain volatile in the nearer term. Our outlook for modest economic growth with only modest inflation is intact. In our opinion, investors should be looking for opportunities to put sidelined funds to work in equities.

We Are Miles and Miles Away from the Fed’s Inflation Target

As the debate over when the Fed will raise interest rates rages on, little discussion, it seems, revolves around one of the major factors influencing this decision: the level of inflation. For years, Fed governors have been telling us they’re “reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its two percent objective over the medium term.” However, based on a large amount of recent economic data, that just hasn’t been the case. In fact, it would be reasonable to argue that the United States is experiencing a period of “disinflation”.

Many investors would beg to differ. This strategist has talked to literally dozens of clients over the last 18 months who believe the rate of inflation is moving higher, not lower. But the data does not support that opinion. Of course, we can argue all day about the way the government calculates inflation. Let’s just say that if you are putting kids through college or paying real estate taxes, you are likely not a believer in the disinflation viewpoint. Most of us are aware that the cost to attend college has been rising far faster than the general rate of inflation. And in terms of real estate taxes, in many parts of the country our clients are telling us their home values are well below the peaks seen in 2006, yet their taxes are higher than they’ve ever been.

But as Chairwoman Janet Yellen has told us many times, the Fed is looking at something called Personal Consumption Expenditures, or PCE, as its go-to inflation gauge. Remember, the Fed is targeting a “core” inflation rate of two percent. Core inflation excludes the effects of food and energy. The Fed looks at core inflation because commodity prices are volatile and often influenced by weather patterns and other seasonal factors, which make them less responsive to monetary policy initiatives. PCE is an inflation gauge targeted toward individuals and what they consume. PCE is mostly different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) because of the way health care and housing costs are measured. The latest core PCE reading showed an increase of just 1.2 percent over the 12 months ending in July.

As discussed numerous times over the years in this publication, the Fed wants to see prices increase at a modest rate. While many consumers would welcome lower prices for purchased goods and services, they don’t want to see falling housing or stock prices. Generally falling prices, or outright deflation, also tends to lead to declining wages. This strategist would argue that the only thing central bankers fear more than high inflation is deflation. Our analysis suggests the U.S. will not slip into a deflationary period.

In a normal cycle, the economy and inflation respond to monetary policy. Interest rates are lowered, growth perks up, and rising inflation is soon to follow. But that did not happen in this cycle. In the wake of the bursting of a gigantic credit bubble, driven by housing, the economy has not been able to consistently grow at a pace in line with the historical trend. PCE moving up to two percent may not sound far away, but we are miles and miles from the Fed’s inflation target. This will influence the Fed’s upcoming monetary decisions.

Scott WrenAbout Scott Wren

Scott Wren is a senior global equity strategist for Wells Fargo Investment Institute (WFII), an organization that provides global manager research and investment strategy advice to Wells Fargo’s Wealth, Brokerage, and Retirement (WBR) division. WBR is comprised of Wells Fargo Private Bank, Wells Fargo Advisors, Wells Fargo Institutional Retirement, and Abbot Downing businesses, accounting for more than $1.6 trillion* in assets under administration.

Mr. Wren produces strategy and guidance recommendations for global equities. With his knowledge of the financial markets, he is often quoted in national media outlets including Reuters, The Chicago Tribune, The Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, The Associated Press, and The Wall Street Journal. He has appeared in interviews on CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Fox Business News, and Nightly Business Report. Prior to joining Wells Fargo Advisors predecessor A.G. Edwards in 1998, Mr. Wren worked as a senior foreign exchange dealer for The Boatmen’s National Bank of St. Louis. He began his career on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and has more than 25 years of experience in financial services.

He received a Bachelor of Science in Business Administration from the University of Kansas and a Master of Finance from Saint Louis University. He is located in St. Louis, Missouri.

*As of Sept. 30, 2014

Risk Factors

Equity investments are subject to market risk which means their value may fluctuate in response to general economic and market conditions, the prospects of individual companies, and industry sectors.

Disclaimers

Global Investment Strategy (“GIS”) is a division of Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Inc. (“WFII”). WFII is a registered investment adviser and wholly-owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo & Company and provides investment advice to Wells Fargo Bank, N.A., Wells Fargo Advisors and other Wells Fargo affiliates. Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. is a bank affiliate of Wells Fargo & Company.

The information in this report was prepared by the GIS division of WFII. Opinions represent GIS’ opinion as of the date of this report and are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to predict or guarantee the future performance of any individual security, market sector or the markets generally. GIS does not undertake to advise you of any change in its opinions or the information contained in this report. Wells Fargo & Company affiliates may issue reports or have opinions that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, this report.

This report is not intended to be a client-specific suitability analysis or recommendation, an offer to participate in any investment, or a recommendation to buy, hold or sell securities. Do not use this report as the sole basis for investment decisions. Do not select an asset class or investment product based on performance alone. Consider all relevant information, including your existing portfolio, investment objectives, risk tolerance, liquidity needs and investment time horizon.

Wells Fargo Advisors is registered with the U.S. Securities Exchange Commission and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, but is not licensed or registered with any financial services regulatory authority outside of the U.S. Non-U.S. residents who maintain U.S.-based financial services account(s) with Wells Fargo Advisors may not be afforded certain protections conferred by legislation and regulations in their country of residence in respect of any investments, investment transactions or communications made with Wells Fargo Advisors.

Brokerage products and services are offered through Wells Fargo Advisors. Wells Fargo Advisors is the trade name used by two separate registered broker-dealers: Wells Fargo Advisors, LLC and Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network, LLC, Members SIPC, non-bank affiliates of Wells Fargo & Company.

 
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