Bond Market Commentary

Over in bond land, Treasury yields are lower before the opening bell Friday following the holiday and ahead of next week’s economic releases, including the finalized December manufacturing purchasing managers’ index from S&P Global and the Federal Open Market Committee’s latest meeting minutes. As of 6:56 AM ET, the yield on the 10-year note is decreasing four basis points (0.04%) to 4.13%, while the 30-year bond yield is falling three basis points (0.03%) to 4.80%. The yield on the two-year note, which is more sensitive to changes in monetary policy, is down three basis points (0.03%) to 3.50%.

Treasury yields were mostly higher on Wednesday during a shortened trading session as initial jobless claims declined while continuing claims for the week prior increased. The yield on the 10-year note was up one basis point (0.01%) to 4.17%, while the 30-year bond yield also rose one basis point (0.01%) to 4.83%. The yield on the two-year note was unchanged at 3.53%. As of end of day Wednesday (December 24), futures markets are pricing in four basis points (0.04%) worth of rate cuts at the Federal Reserve's upcoming January meeting, with a cumulative 53 basis points (0.53%) worth of rate cuts by year-end 2026 and a cumulative 51 basis points (0.51%) worth of rate cuts by year-end 2027.

For the week ending December 24, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was down three basis points (0.03%) to 6.18%, versus 6.85% a year ago. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate increased three basis points (0.03%) to 5.50%, versus 6.00% a year ago.

None at this time.

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