Bond Market Commentary

Over in bond land, Treasury yields are lower before the opening bell Friday as investors are closely watching developments in the Iran war. Next week, investors will be looking forward to June inflation, retail sales, and industrial production data, along with July consumer sentiment and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh’s delivery of the Fed’s semiannual testimony to Congress. As of 6:55 AM ET, the yield on the 10-year note is decreasing one basis point (0.01%) to 4.54%, while the 30-year bond yield is unchanged at 5.06%. The yield on the two-year note, which is more sensitive to changes in monetary policy, is down one basis point (0.01%) to 4.17%.

Treasury yields were lower on Thursday as both initial jobless claims and continuing claims fell. Existing home sales unexpectedly decreased in June to an annualized pace of 4.09 million. The yield on the 10-year note was down three basis points (0.03%) to 4.55%, while the 30-year bond yield fell one basis point (0.01%) to 5.06%. The yield on the two-year note decreased four basis points (0.04%) to 4.18%. As of end of day Thursday (July 9), futures markets are pricing in six basis points (0.06%) worth of rate hikes at the Fed’s upcoming July meeting, with a cumulative 35 basis points (0.35%) worth of rate hikes by year-end 2026.

Mortgage rates were higher in the latest week.
For the week ending July 9, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was up six basis points (0.06%) to 6.49%, versus 6.72% a year ago. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate increased three basis points (0.03%) to 5.82%, versus 5.86% a year ago.

The Bloomberg 30-day visible supply fell $41 million to $17.216 billion on Thursday, above the 12-month average of $13.996 billion.

This information is obtained from sources and data considered to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness is not guaranteed by Wells Fargo Advisors. Additional information available by request.

Wells Fargo Advisors is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, but is not licensed or registered with any financial services regulatory authority outside of the U.S. Non-U.S. residents who maintain U.S.-based financial services account(s) with Wells Fargo Advisors may not be afforded certain protections conferred by legislation and regulations in their country of residence in respect of any investments, investment transactions or communications made with Wells Fargo Advisors.

Wells Fargo Advisors is a trade name used by Wells Fargo Clearing Services, LLC and Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network, LLC, Members SIPC, separate registered broker-dealers and non-bank affiliates of Wells Fargo & Company.