Bond Market Commentary

Over in bond land, Treasury yields are mixed before the opening bell Friday as investors look ahead to next week’s preliminary November purchasing managers’ indexes and the gradual release of backlogged economic data following the resolution of the government shutdown. As of 6:55 AM ET, the yield on the 10-year note is rising one basis point (0.01%) to 4.13%, while the 30-year bond yield is increasing two basis points (0.02%) to 4.73%. The yield on the two-year note, which is more sensitive to changes in monetary policy, is down one basis point (0.01%) to 3.58%.

Treasury yields were higher on Thursday following U.S. President Donald Trump signing the stopgap funding bill late Wednesday to end the longest U.S. government shutdown. The yield on the 10-year note was up five basis points (0.05%) to 4.12%, while the 30-year bond yield also rose five basis points (0.05%) to 4.71%. The yield on the two-year note increased two basis points (0.02%) to 3.59%. As of end of day Thursday (November 13), futures markets are pricing in 12 basis points (0.12%) worth of rate cuts at the Federal Reserve's upcoming December meeting, with a cumulative 81 basis points (0.81%) worth of rate cuts by year-end 2026 and a cumulative 73 basis points (0.73%) worth of rate cuts by year-end 2027.

On the data front, the release of several economic reports scheduled for today, including October’s retail sales and Producer Price Index, along with September’s business inventories, may be delayed due to the government shutdown.

Mortgage rates were mixed in the latest week. For the week ending November 13, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was up two basis points (0.02%) to 6.24%, versus 6.78% a year ago. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate decreased one basis point (0.01%) to 5.49%, versus 5.99% a year ago.

In the central bank space, Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid are scheduled to speak today.

The Bloomberg 30-day visible supply rose $596 million to $13.463 billion on Thursday, below the 12-month average of $13.808 billion.

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