Bond Market Commentary

Over in bond land, Treasury yields are higher before the opening bell Thursday as investors assess developments in the Iran war, with the Houthis striking two ships in the Red Sea. Investors are also awaiting fresh earnings reports and latest unemployment claims update, along with economic data from the Chicago and Kansas City Federal Reserve (Fed) banks. As of 6:55 AM ET, the yield on the 10-year note is rising two basis points (0.02%) to 4.67%, while the 30-year bond yield is also increasing two basis points (0.02%) to 5.16%. The yield on the two-year note, which is more sensitive to changes in monetary policy, is up one basis point (0.01%) to 4.31%. 

Treasury yields were higher on Wednesday as markets assessed the latest news on U.S. tariff policy. The yield on the 10-year note was up two basis points (0.02%) to 4.65%, while the 30-year bond yield rose one basis point (0.01%) to 5.14%. The yield on the two-year note increased four basis points (0.04%) to 4.30%.

On the data front, initial jobless claims for the week ending July 18 are expected to come in at 210,000, higher than the prior week’s 208,000, while continuing claims are expected to come in at 1.809 million for the week ending July 11, slightly up from the prior week’s 1.805 million. The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index for June is expected to improve to 0.0, up from the prior month’s -0.10. The Kansas City Fed will release their Manufacturing Survey for July, with the composite index expected to come in at 12, up from the prior month’s 11.

In the auction space, the U.S. Treasury is set to issue $110 billion in four-week bills, $100 billion in eight-week bills, and $21 billion in 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities.

The Bloomberg 30-day visible supply fell $1.692 billion to $14.976 billion on Wednesday, above the 12-month average of $13.988 billion.

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