Bond Market Commentary

Over in bond land, Treasury yields are higher before the opening bell Thursday as markets continue to assess developments in the Iran War. Meanwhile, investors are awaiting today’s jobless claims data and a slew of Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers. As of 6:57 AM ET, the yield on the 10-year note is rising five basis points (0.05%) to 4.38%, while the 30-year bond yield is increasing four basis points (0.04%) to 4.94%. The yield on the two-year note, which is more sensitive to changes in monetary policy, is up four basis points (0.04%) to 3.93%. 

Treasury yields were mostly lower on Wednesday following hopes for a peace deal. Meanwhile, import prices rose more than expected, increasing 1.3% month-over-month (MOM) and 1.3% year-over-year (YOY), while export prices posted a larger than expected gain of 1.5% MOM and increased 3.5% YOY. The yield on the 10-year note was down three basis points (0.03%) to 4.33%, while the 30-year bond yield also fell three basis points (0.03%) to 4.90%. The yield on the two-year note was unchanged at 3.89%.

On the data front, initial jobless claims for the week ending March 21 are expected to come in at 210,000, slightly higher than the prior week’s 205,000, while continuing claims are expected to come in at 1.85 million for the week ending March 14, down from the prior week’s 1.86 million. The Kansas City Fed will release their Manufacturing Survey for March, with the composite index expected to come in at 3, down from the prior month’s 5.

In the auction space, the U.S. Treasury is set to issue $85 billion in four-week bills, $80 billion in eight-week bills, and $44 billion in seven-year notes.

In the central bank space, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, Fed Governor Michael Barr, Fed Governor Lisa Cook, and Fed Governor Stephen Miran are scheduled to speak today.

The Bloomberg 30-day visible supply fell $461 million to $19.093 billion on Wednesday, above the 12-month average of $14.118 billion.

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