Bond Market Commentary

Over in bond land, Treasury yields are unchanged before the opening bell Tuesday ahead of today’s economic releases, including the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for both September and October. As of 6:56 AM ET, the yield on the 10-year note is unchanged at 4.16%, while the 30-year bond yield is also unchanged at 4.80%. The yield on the two-year note, which is more sensitive to changes in monetary policy, is unchanged at 3.58%.

Treasury yields were higher on Monday as the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s November 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations showed a slight decrease in one-year-ahead inflation expectations, with the measure falling to 3.20%. The yield on the 10-year note was up two basis points (0.02%) to 4.16%, while the 30-year bond yield rose one basis point (0.01%) to 4.80%. The yield on the two-year note increased two basis points (0.02%) to 3.58%.

On the data front, the National Federation of Independent Business’s gauge of small business optimism came in at 99.0 in November, slightly above the prior month’s reading. The Leading Index for September is forecasted to show a decline of 0.3%. Meanwhile, the October JOLTS is forecasted to show job openings of 7.1 million.

In the auction space, the U.S. Treasury is set to issue $75 billion in six-week bills and $39 billion in 10-year notes.

The Bloomberg 30-day visible supply fell $1.619 billion to $11.018 billion on Monday, below the 12-month average of $13.901 billion.

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