Bond Market Commentary

Over in bond land, Treasury yields are higher before the opening bell Friday following President Donald Trump announcing an increase on the tariff for Canadian imports that do not fall under the United States-Mexico-Canada-Agreement from 25% to 35% starting August 1. President Trump also mentioned a potential increase in the global minimum tariff from 10% to either 15% or 20%. As of 6:53 AM ET, the yield on the 10-year note is rising three basis points (0.03%) to 4.38%, while the 30-year bond yield is increasing four basis points (0.04%) to 4.91%. The yield on the two-year note, which is more sensitive to changes in monetary policy, is up one basis point (0.01%) to 3.88%.

Treasury yields were mostly higher on Thursday as markets digested the copper and Brazil tariff news. Initial jobless claims fell, though continuing claims picked up. The yield on the 10-year note was up two basis points (0.02%) to 4.35%, while the 30-year bond yield was unchanged at 4.87%. The yield on the two-year note increased three basis points (0.03%) to 3.87%.

On the data front, the U.S. federal budget balance for June is expected to show a deficit of $30.0 billion versus the prior month’s $316.0 billion.

In the central bank space, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee is scheduled to speak today.

Mortgage rates were higher in the latest week. For the week ending July 10, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was up five basis points (0.05%) to 6.72%, versus 6.89% a year ago. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate increased six basis points (0.06%) to 5.86%, versus 6.17% a year ago.

The Bloomberg 30-day visible supply fell $1.121 billion to $15.482 billion on Thursday, compared to the 12-month average of $13.878 billion.

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