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Bond Market Commentary

Updates on bond market data, news, and activity each day.

May 24, 2024

Over in bond land, Treasury yields are mostly lower before the opening bell Friday as investors look forward to the initial release of April’s durable goods orders and May’s finalized University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The yield on the 10-year note is decreasing one basis point (0.01%) to 4.47%, while the 30-year bond yield is unchanged at 4.58%. The yield on the two-year note, which is more sensitive to changes in monetary policy, is down two basis points (0.02%) to 4.92%.

Treasury yields were higher on Thursday, with the initial release of May Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) coming in higher than consensus estimates, while April’s new home sales decreased more than expected. The yield on the 10-year note was up six basis points (0.06%) to 4.48%, while the 30-year bond yield rose four basis points (0.04%) to 4.58%. The yield on the two-year note increased seven basis points (0.07%) to 4.94%.

On the data front today, the preliminary release of April’s durable goods orders are projected to decrease 0.8% versus the prior month’s revised increase of 0.9%. The final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to record 67.7 for May, up from the prior reading of 67.4. Meanwhile, May’s final readings for the University of Michigan’s one- and 5-10-year inflation expectations are forecasted at 3.4% and 3.1%, respectively, slightly down from the prior reading of 3.5% and unchanged, respectively.

In the central bank space, Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller is scheduled to speak today about the neutral interest rate.

Mortgage rates were lower in the latest week. For the week ending May 23, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was down eight basis points (0.08%) to 6.94%, versus 6.57% a year ago. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate decreased four basis points (0.04%) to 6.24%, versus 5.97% a year ago.

Municipal Market Commentary

The Bloomberg 30-day visible supply fell $4.772 billion to $6.488 billion on Thursday, below the 12-month average of $9.180 billion.

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