Bond Market Commentary

Over in bond land, Treasury yields are mostly unchanged before the opening bell Monday ahead of a slew of Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers scheduled for today. Investors are looking forward to this week’s key data releases, including September’s Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs), the third reading of second-quarter gross domestic product, and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Deflator for August. As of 6:45 AM ET, the yield on the 10-year note is unchanged at 4.13%, while the 30-year bond yield is increasing one basis point (0.01%) to 4.75%. The yield on the two-year note, which is more sensitive to changes in monetary policy, is unchanged at 3.57%.

Treasury yields were higher on Friday with the government funding deadline of midnight on September 30, 2025 rapidly approaching after Senate Democrats blocked a Republican-backed stopgap bill that had narrowly passed the House. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer urged President Donald Trump to meet with Democrats to negotiate a bipartisan solution. The yield on the 10-year note was up three basis points (0.03%) to 4.13%, while the 30-year bond yield rose two basis points (0.02%) to 4.74%. The yield on the two-year note increased one basis point (0.01%) to 3.57%.

On the data front, the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index for August is expected to come in at negative 0.16, up from the prior month’s negative 0.19.

In the auction space, the U.S. Treasury is set to issue $73 billion in 26-week bills and $82 billion in 13-week bills.

In the central bank space, Fed Governor Stephen Miran, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, and New York Fed President John Williams are scheduled to speak today.

Mortgage rates were lower in the latest week. For the week ending September 18, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was down nine basis points (0.09%) to 6.26%, versus 6.09% a year ago. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate decreased nine basis points (0.09%) to 5.41%, versus 5.15% a year ago.

None at this time.

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