July 21, 2025
Yields lower to start off week
Over in bond land, Treasury yields are lower before the opening bell Monday ahead of major data releases later this week, including preliminary July purchasing managers’ indexes and June’s new home sales. Investors will also be awaiting any trade developments as the August 1 tariff implementation date approaches. As of 6:46 AM ET, the yield on the 10-year note is decreasing four basis points (0.04%) to 4.38%, while the 30-year bond yield is also falling four basis points (0.04%) to 4.95%. The yield on the two-year note, which is more sensitive to changes in monetary policy, is down three basis points (0.03%) to 3.84%.
Treasury yields were lower on Friday as June’s housing starts increased more than projected and a preliminary reading of building permits unexpectedly rose. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s preliminary July reading of consumer sentiment improved more than expected and the measure of one-year inflation expectations fell to 4.4%, while the 5-10-year outlook eased to 3.6%. The yield on the 10-year note was down three basis points (0.03%) to 4.42%, while the 30-year bond yield fell two basis points (0.02%) to 4.99%. The yield on the two-year note decreased three basis points (0.03%) to 3.87%.
On the data front, the leading index for June is forecasted to show a decline of 0.3%, versus the prior month’s decrease of 0.1%.
In the auction space, the U.S. Treasury is set to issue $82 billion in 13-week bills and $73 billion in 26-week bills.
Mortgage rates were higher in the latest week. For the week ending July 17, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was up three basis points (0.03%) to 6.75%, versus 6.77% a year ago. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate increased six basis points (0.06%) to 5.92%, versus 6.05% a year ago.
Municipal Market Commentary
The Bloomberg 30-day visible supply fell $4.404 billion to $14.062 billion on Friday, above the 12-month average of $13.973 billion.
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