Opening Comment — Thursday, October 01, 2026
DJIA: 50,906.05, down 443.87
S&P 500: 7,651.54, down 19.30
NASDAQ: 26,861.06, up 63.52
Stocks higher ahead of PMI data
Stock futures are mostly higher Thursday morning as investors look ahead to today’s economic releases, including the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) September manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). Investors are also looking forward to a series of comments today from Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers, along with tomorrow’s September jobs report. As of 7:26 AM ET, the Dow is little changed, while the S&P 500 is up 0.2%. The Nasdaq 100 is increasing 0.4% relative to fair value on the GLOBEX.
U.S. equities were mixed on Wednesday as August personal income rose a softer-than-expected 0.2% month-over-month (MOM), personal spending increased 0.9% MOM, matching expectations. The headline and core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index accelerated to 0.3% and 0.2% MOM, respectively, while annual PCE inflation remained steady at 3.4% and 3.0% year-over-year (YOY), respectively, both below expectations, following the Commerce Department’s annual revisions that lowered the rate on financial-management fees and certain other components. Separately, the third reading of second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth was revised higher to a 2.2% annualized pace, while personal consumption was revised up to 3.8%. ADP’s measure of September private payrolls increased by a stronger-than-expected 90,000. Meanwhile, the advance goods trade deficit unexpectedly widened in August. The Dow was down 0.9%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.2%. The S&P 500 decreased 0.3% with nine of 11 sectors finishing in negative territory. The Information Technology sector was the top performer, rising 0.6%, while the Consumer Staples sector was the bottom performer, falling 1.7%.
On the data front, the Challenger Report on job cuts for September showed a 19.9% YOY decline, compared with the prior month's 38.5% decrease. Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 26 are expected to rise modestly to 200,000 from the prior week's 197,000, while continuing claims for the week ending September 19 are expected to increase slightly to 1.725 million from the prior week’s 1.719 million. Meanwhile, the final reading of S&P Global’s manufacturing PMI for September is expected to come in at 57.0, matching the preliminary reading. ISM’s September manufacturing PMI and the prices paid component are expected to register 55.0 and 73.0, respectively, versus the prior month’s 54.6 and 71.1, respectively. Meanwhile, August construction spending is expected to register little change MOM following the prior month's 0.5% decline. Omdia’s measure of September total vehicle sales is projected to ease to an annualized 16.30 million from 16.76 million in the previous month.
Across the pond, European stocks are lower in mid-day trading as the U.K.’s Nationwide House Price Index unexpectedly declined 0.2% MOM in September, while annual house price growth eased more than anticipated to 0.8% YOY. Meanwhile, the finalized readings of S&P Global’s September manufacturing PMIs for the eurozone, France, and Germany were revised higher to 52.9, 50.6, and 53.9. In contrast, the U.K.’s September manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 51.9. Separately, the eurozone unemployment rate held steady at 6.4% in August, unchanged from the previous month's reading.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were mixed as the Bank of Japan’s third-quarter Tankan Large Manufacturing Index rose less than forecasted to 24 and the Large Non-Manufacturing Index eased more than expected to 35. Meanwhile, the country’s finalized September manufacturing PMI remained unchanged from the preliminary reading of 54.1. Australia’s trade surplus unexpectedly narrowed in August, with exports and imports increasing 3.7% and 5.8% MOM, respectively. The country’s finalized September manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 49.6. South Korea’s trade surplus widened more than expected in September, with stronger-than-expected growth in exports and imports, which rose 83.5% and 26.0% YOY, respectively. The country’s September manufacturing PMI improved to 53.9.
In FOREX trading, the dollar is higher as markets reprice expectations for Fed rate hikes following yesterday’s U.S. inflation update.
Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is 1.2% higher at $91.50/barrel and Brent crude oil is up 1.9% at $99.85/barrel.
In the metals complex, gold is 0.4% higher at $4,175.44/ounce despite a strengthening U.S. dollar.