Opening Comment — Thursday, February 19, 2026
DJIA: 49,662.66, up 129.47
S&P 500: 6,881.31, up 38.09
NASDAQ: 22,753.63, up 175.25
Stocks lower ahead of trade data
Stock futures are lower Thursday morning ahead of today’s release of December’s trade deficit and leading index, along with weekly jobless claims data. As of 7:24 AM ET, the Dow is decreasing 0.3%, while the S&P 500 is down 0.2%. The Nasdaq 100 is falling 0.4% relative to fair value on the GLOBEX.
U.S. equities were higher on Wednesday as the minutes for the Federal Open Market Committee’s January meeting showed “the vast majority of participants judged that downside risks to employment had moderated in recent months while the risk of more persistent inflation remained.” Meanwhile, December’s preliminary durable goods orders fell less than expected, while industrial production increased more than projected January. The Dow was up 0.3%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.8%. The S&P 500 increased 0.6% with eight of 11 sectors finishing in positive territory. The Energy sector was the top performer, rising 2.0%, while the Utilities sector was the bottom performer, falling 1.7%.
On the data front, the U.S. trade deficit is expected to narrow in December to $55.5 billion from the prior month’s $56.8 billion, with imports and exports both expected to rise 0.1% month-over-month (MOM). The preliminary December reading of wholesale inventories is expected to show an increase of 0.2% MOM, similar to the prior month’s increase, while retail inventories are forecasted to have risen 0.1% MOM in December versus the prior month’s decrease of 0.1%. The Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Philadelphia’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey for February will be released, with the diffusion index for current general activity expected to fall to 7.5 from the prior month’s 12.6. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims for the week ending February 14 are expected to come in at 225,000, slightly lower than the prior week’s 227,000, and continuing claims are expected to remain steady at 1.86 million for the week ending February 7. The leading index for December is forecasted to show a decline of 0.2% versus the prior month’s decrease of 0.3%. Pending home sales for January are expected to have increased 2.0% MOM and 2.3% year-over-year (YOY) versus the prior month’s declines of 9.3% and 1.3%, respectively. The Department of Energy’s measure of crude oil inventories is expected to have increased by 1.65 million barrels for the week ending February 13 versus the prior week’s increase of 8.53 million barrels.
Across the pond, European stocks are lower in mid-day trading ahead of tomorrow’s release of the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data for Germany, the U.K., France, and the eurozone.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were mostly higher as Australia’s employment change came in lower than projected for January, while both the unemployment rate and the labor force participation rate remained steady at 4.1% and 66.7%, respectively. Meanwhile, Japan’s core machine orders for December registered a significant increase, rising by 19.1% MOM and 16.8% YOY.
In FOREX trading, the U.S. dollar is slightly higher as investors await today’s U.S. economic data releases.
Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is 1.7% higher at $66.30/barrel despite an expected increase in reported crude oil inventories
In the metals complex, gold is 0.2% higher at $4,984.8/ounce despite a strengthening U.S. dollar.