Opening Comment — Tuesday, September 16, 2025
DJIA: 45,883.45, up 49.23
S&P 500: 6,615.28, up 30.99
NASDAQ: 22,348.75, up 207.65
Stocks higher ahead of Fed meeting
Stock futures are mostly higher Tuesday morning ahead of the start of this week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. Investors are awaiting today’s key economic releases, including data on August retail sales and industrial production, along with import and export prices. As of 7:15 AM ET, the Dow is little changed, while the S&P 500 is up 0.2%. The Nasdaq 100 is increasing 0.3% relative to fair value on the GLOBEX.
U.S. equities were higher on Monday as the Empire State Manufacturing Survey from the New York Fed showed a sharp and unexpected decline in business activity in September, with the headline general business conditions index dropping significantly to a negative 8.7. The Dow was up 0.1%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.9%. The S&P 500 increased 0.5% with five of 11 sectors finishing in positive territory. The Communication Services sector was the top performer, rising 2.3%, while the Consumer Staples sector was the bottom performer, falling 1.2%.
On the data front, retail sales are expected to have risen 0.2% month-over-month (MOM) in August versus the prior month’s increase of 0.5%, while retail sales excluding autos are forecasted to have risen 0.4% MOM versus the prior month’s 0.3%. The New York Fed will release their Business Leaders Survey for September, with the headline business activity index expected to improve to negative 5.8 from the prior month’s negative 11.7. Import prices are expected to decrease by 0.2% MOM and register little change year-over-year (YOY) in August, versus the prior month’s increase of 0.4% and decrease of 0.2%, respectively. Meanwhile, export prices are expected to increase by 0.1% MOM and 2.5% YOY in August, versus the prior month’s increases of 0.1% and of 2.2%, respectively. Industrial production is forecasted to have decreased 0.1% MOM in August, similar to the prior month’s decrease, while capacity utilization is projected to have fallen to 77.4% from the prior month’s 77.5%. Business inventories are expected to have risen 0.2% MOM in July, similar to the prior month’s increase. The National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index is forecasted to increase to 33 for September from the prior month’s 32.
Across the pond, European stocks are lower in mid-day trading as the U.K.’s three-month average unemployment rate through July remained steady at 4.7% and average weekly earnings growth accelerated in line with expectations. Meanwhile, the country’s jobless claims rose, and the claimant count rate increased in August, following a downward revision to the previous month’s figures. ZEW measures of economic growth expectations for both the eurozone and Germany increased in September. The eurozone’s industrial production registered a smaller-than-expected increase of 0.3% MOM and rose 1.8% YOY as expected in July.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were mostly higher as South Korea’s Export Price Index registered an increase of 0.7% MOM and decrease of 1.0% YOY in August, while the Import Price Index rose by 0.3% MOM and fell by 2.2% YOY. Meanwhile, Japan’s Tertiary (services) Industry Index showed a greater-than-expected increase of 0.5% MOM in July, compared to prior month’s revised decrease of 0.2%.
In FOREX trading, the dollar is lower as investors await a slew of central bank meetings, including the Fed’s two-day policy meeting beginning later today.
Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is 0.1% lower at $63.25/barrel.
In the metals complex, gold is 0.4% higher at $3,705.70/ounce following a weakening dollar.
This content includes material generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence.