Opening Comment — Monday, June 30, 2025
DJIA: 43,819.27, up 432.43
S&P 500: 6,173.07, up 32.05
NASDAQ: 20,273.46, up 105.55
Stocks higher to start off week
Stock futures are higher Monday morning following optimism that progress is being made on trade deals. Market participants are also awaiting economic releases later in the week, including June purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) from the Institute for Supply Management, along with June’s jobs report and May’s trade balance on Thursday. As of 7:15 AM ET, the Dow is rising 0.5%, while the S&P 500 is up 0.4%. The Nasdaq 100 is increasing 0.6% relative to fair value on the GLOBEX.
U.S. equities were higher on Friday, with the S&P 500 reaching a new all-time high of 6173. Both personal income and personal spending unexpectedly fell. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Deflator, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) preferred gauge of inflation, came in as expected on a headline basis, while the core measure came in hotter-than-forecasted. The finalized reading of May consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan was revised slightly higher, following downwardly revised one- and 5-10-year inflation expectations. The Dow was up 1.0%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.5%. The S&P 500 increased 0.5% with nine of 11 sectors finishing in positive territory. The Consumer Discretionary sector was the top performer, rising 1.8%, while the Energy sector was the bottom performer, falling 0.5%.
On the data front, the Market News International Chicago PMI is expected to come in at 42.9 for June versus the prior month’s 40.5. The Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for June will be released, with the general business activity index forecasted to come in at negative 12.0, up from the prior month’s negative 15.3.
Across the pond, European stocks are lower in mid-day trading as Germany’s May retail sales unexpectedly declined month over month, while year-over-year (YOY) growth came in as expected, following an upwardly revised reading for the previous month. Meanwhile, the country’s May Import Price Index fell more than expected. The U.K.’s mortgage approvals rose more than expected in May and its finalized first-quarter gross domestic product came in as expected, rising by 0.7% quarter-over-quarter (QOQ) and 1.3% YOY. The country’s finalized first-quarter exports and imports registered smaller than-expected increases QOQ.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were mixed as China’s official PMIs showed improvements in both the manufacturing and service sectors, though the former remained in contractionary territory. Both Japan and South Korea’s industrial production data came in significantly weaker than expected for May. Meanwhile, Japan’s annualized housing starts came in weaker than expected at 529,000 in May, marking a sharper than anticipated decline of 34.4%.
In FOREX trading, the dollar is lower ahead of tomorrow’s U.S. PMI data.
Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is 0.1% lower at $65.45/barrel following expectations of a further production hike by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies in August.
In the metals complex, gold is 0.3% higher at $3,296.10/ounce following a weakening dollar.