Opening Comment — Thursday, November 12, 2026
DJIA: 52,486.49, up 254.60
S&P 500: 7,619.38, up 98.45
NASDAQ: 25,466.19, up 400.31
Stocks lower ahead of Fed speakers
Stock futures are mostly lower and Treasury yields are little changed before the opening bell Thursday amid renewed pressure on artificial intelligence (AI)-related equities, while investors await remarks from several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials today. Market participants are also focused on key economic releases, including today’s October existing home sales and federal budget balance, as well as the Producer Price Index (PPI) due tomorrow. As of 7:04 AM ET, the Dow is little changed, while the S&P 500 is down 0.4%. The Nasdaq 100 is falling 0.9% relative to fair value on the GLOBEX. Over in bond land, the yield on the 10-year note is unchanged at 4.99%, while the 30-year bond yield is falling one basis point (0.01%) to 5.34%. The yield on the two-year note, which is more sensitive to changes in monetary policy, is up one basis point (0.01%) to 4.75%.
U.S. equities were higher on Wednesday as technology stocks rebounded amid signs of robust demand for AI. The Dow was up 0.5%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 1.6%. The S&P 500 increased 1.3% with 10 of 11 sectors finishing in positive territory. The Information Technology sector was the top performer, rising 2.7%, while the Consumer Discretionary sector was the bottom performer, falling 0.4%. Bond markets were closed yesterday for Veterans Day.
On the data front, initial jobless claims for the week ending November 7 are expected to come in at 194,000, higher than the prior week’s 189,000, while continuing claims are expected to fall slightly to 1.710 million for the week ending October 31 from the prior week’s 1.718 million. Existing home sales are forecasted to decline to an annualized 3.85 million pace in October versus the prior month’s 3.99 million pace. Meanwhile, the Department of Energy’s measure of crude oil inventories is expected to have decreased by 1.483 million barrels for the week ending November 6 versus the prior week’s decrease of 865,000 barrels. The U.S. federal budget balance for October is expected to show a deficit of $317.5 billion versus the prior month’s deficit of $284.3 billion.
In the auction space, the U.S. Treasury is set to issue $110 billion in eight-week bills, $115 billion in four-week bills, $75 billion in 17-week bills, and $25 billion in 30-year bonds.
In the central bank space, Fed Governor Michael Barr, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, and New York Fed President John Williams are scheduled to speak today.
Municipal market commentary
The Bloomberg 30-day visible supply rose $2.318 billion to $15.475 billion on Wednesday, below the 12-month average of $15.795 billion.
Across the pond, European stocks are higher in mid-day trading as the U.K.’s preliminary reading of third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth increased by 0.7% quarter-over-quarter (QOQ) and 1.9% year-over-year (YOY), in line with expectations, accelerating from 0.5% and 1.4%, respectively, in the prior quarter. Meanwhile, the country’s September monthly GDP rose 0.2% month-over-month (MOM), exceeding expectations for no change following the prior month’s downwardly revised reading. The U.K.’s September industrial production unexpectedly rose 0.3% MOM and increased a stronger-than-projected 3.1% YOY. The country’s Index of Services for September increased 0.2% MOM, defying expectations for no change. Meanwhile, the U.K.’s September visible trade deficit unexpectedly widened to £22.3 ($29.6) billion from a revised £19.6 ($26.0) billion, while the overall trade deficit also unexpectedly widened to £5.1 ($6.8) billion from a revised £2.6 ($3.5) billion.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were mostly lower as Japan’s October PPI increased a stronger-than-expected 0.7% MOM and 7.1% YOY, following the prior month’s upwardly revised 0.2% MOM decline and 6.8% YOY increase, respectively. Meanwhile, the country’s consumer inflation expectations held steady at 5.3% in November.
In FOREX trading, the U.S. dollar is little changed as investors look ahead to the U.S. PPI data due tomorrow.
Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is 0.7% lower at $85.91/barrel and Brent crude oil is down 0.6% at $92.22/barrel as recovering Middle East oil production raised expectations for increased global supply.
In the metals complex, gold is 1.0% lower at $3,947.71/ounce.