Opening Comment — Tuesday, December 16, 2025
DJIA: 48,416.56, down 41.49
S&P 500: 6,816.51, down 10.90
NASDAQ: 23,057.41, down 137.76
Stocks flat ahead of November jobs report
Stock futures are mostly unchanged Tuesday morning as investors are awaiting today’s release of the delayed November jobs report and October payrolls data, along with the preliminary readings of December purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs). As of 7:16 AM ET, the Dow and the S&P 500 Index are both little changed. The Nasdaq 100 is falling 0.1% relative to fair value on the GLOBEX.
U.S. equities were lower on Monday as the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of New York’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey reported a steeper-than-expected drop in business activity for December. Meanwhile, a gauge of homebuilder sentiment improved in December, in line with expectations. The Dow was down 0.1%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.6%. The S&P 500 decreased 0.2% with three of 11 sectors finishing in negative territory. The Health Care sector was the top performer, rising 1.3%, while the Information Technology sector was the bottom performer, falling 1.0%.
On the data front, November’s nonfarm payrolls are expected to expand by 50,000, while manufacturing payrolls are projected to fall by 5,000. Average hourly earnings are projected to rise 0.3% month-over-month (MOM) and 3.6% year-over-year for November. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to come in at 4.5% in November, while the labor force participation rate is expected to come in at 62.4%. Retail sales are expected to have risen 0.1% MOM in October versus the prior month’s increase of 0.2%, while retail sales excluding autos are forecasted to have risen 0.2% MOM versus the prior month’s 0.3%. The New York Fed will release their Business Leaders Survey for December. The preliminary reading of S&P Global’s composite PMI for December is expected to come in at 53.9 versus the prior month’s 54.2, with the manufacturing and services PMIs forecasted at 52.1 and 54.0, respectively, compared to the prior month’s 52.2 and 54.1, respectively. Business inventories are expected to have risen 0.1% MOM in September versus the prior month’s little change.
Across the pond, European stocks are mostly lower in mid-day trading as the U.K.’s three-month average unemployment rate climbed to 5.1%, while average weekly earnings growth rose 4.7% year-over-year through October. Meanwhile, the country’s jobless claims rose, and the claimant count rate increased in November. The eurozone’s preliminary December manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to 49.2 and the services PMI fell more than expected to 52.6. Meanwhile, the U.K.’s preliminary manufacturing PMI rose more than expected to 51.2 and the services PMI also beat forecasts, rising to 52.1. The ZEW measures of economic growth expectations rose for the eurozone and Germany in December. The eurozone’s trade surplus narrowed in October.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were lower as Westpac’s Consumer Confidence Index for Australia declined by 9.0% MOM in December. Australia’s preliminary December services and composite PMIs eased to 51.0 and 51.1, respectively, while the manufacturing PMI rose to 52.2. The Japanese preliminary manufacturing PMI for December rose to 49.7, while the services and composite PMIs declined to 52.5 and 51.5, respectively.
In FOREX trading, the U.S. dollar is slightly lower ahead of today’s U.S. jobs report.
Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is 1.8% lower at $55.80/barrel as confidence in the likelihood of a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement increased.
In the metals complex, gold is 0.7% lower at $4,277.20/ounce despite a weakening U.S. dollar.