Opening Comment — Wednesday, September 30, 2026
DJIA: 51,349.92, down 131.59
S&P 500: 7,670.84, down 12.85
NASDAQ: 26,797.54, down 22.84 points
Stocks lower ahead of PCE data
Stock futures are lower Wednesday morning ahead of today’s key economic releases including August’s personal income, personal spending, and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Deflator (the Federal Reserve’s [Fed’s] preferred gauge of inflation). As of 7:15 AM ET, the Dow is decreasing 0.2%, while the S&P 500 is down 0.1%. The Nasdaq 100 is falling 0.3% relative to fair value on the GLOBEX.
U.S. equities were lower on Tuesday as September consumer confidence fell significantly to 81.9, the lowest level in over a decade, from a downwardly revised 88.6 in August. The August Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed job openings falling to 7.08 million from the prior month’s revised 7.36 million, well below expectations. Separately, measures of U.S. home price growth came in stronger than projected in July. The Dow was down 0.3%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.1%. The S&P 500 decreased 0.2% with seven of 11 sectors finishing in negative territory. The Utilities sector was the top performer, rising 1.1%, while the Energy sector was the bottom performer, falling 0.9%.
On the data front, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s gauge of mortgage applications decreased by 6.0% for the week ending September 25 versus the prior week’s decrease of 1.5%. The ADP National Employment Report for September is expected to show private job gains of 75,000, versus the prior month’s 38,000. Personal income is expected to have increased 0.5% month-over-month (MOM) in August, versus the prior month’s increase of 0.4%, while personal spending is expected to have increased 0.9% MOM in August compared to the prior month’s increase of 0.2%. The PCE deflator for August is expected to have risen 0.3% MOM, accelerating from the prior month’s 0.2%, but remained steady at 3.7% year-over-year (YOY). Meanwhile, the core PCE deflator for August is also expected to have increased 0.3% MOM, accelerating from the prior month’s 0.2%, but held steady at 3.3% YOY. The third readings of second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP), the GDP Price Index, the core PCE Price Index, and personal consumption are expected to come in at annualized growth rates of 1.5%, 6.4%, 3.6% and 3.4%, respectively, similar to the prior readings. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will also release their annual revisions, which may affect past month’s PCE inflation figures. The advance goods trade balance for August is expected to show a deficit of $115.0 billion versus the prior month’s revised deficit of $118.9 billion. The preliminary August reading of wholesale inventories is expected to show an increase of 0.5% MOM, compared to the prior month’s increase of 1.3%, while retail inventories are forecasted to have increased by 0.3% MOM in August, versus the prior month’s revised increase of 0.8%. The Market News International Chicago purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for September is expected to come in at 51.0, up from the prior month’s 47.1. The Department of Energy’s measure of crude oil inventories is expected to have decreased by 710,000 barrels for the week ending September 25 versus the prior week’s increase of 2.97 million barrels.
Across the pond, European stocks are mixed in mid-day trading as the U.K.’s finalized reading of second-quarter GDP was revised higher to 0.5% quarter-over-quarter (QOQ) and 1.4% YOY from 0.4% and 1.2%, respectively. The country’s finalized second quarter exports were revised higher to 2.8% QOQ from 0.5%, while imports were revised down to show little change QOQ. Germany’s August import prices rose more than expected, increasing 1.0% MOM and 8.3% YOY, while retail sales rebounded 1.3% MOM.
The country’s unemployment rose by 12,000 in September, above expectations, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.4%. In France, the preliminary reading of September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a smaller-than-expected decline of 0.3% MOM and a greater-than-expected increase of 3.0% YOY. Meanwhile, the country’s August Producer Price Index rose 1.0% MOM and 4.8% YOY.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were mixed as China's official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs both improved in September, coming in at 50.1 and 50.2, respectively. Meanwhile, China’s private manufacturing and services PMIs from RatingDog for September rose to 52.1 and 51.6, while the composite PMI rose to 52.4. Japan’s preliminary August industrial production unexpectedly declined 1.7% MOM. The country’s August retail sales declined more than expected, falling by 1.2% MOM. Japanese housing starts increased 6.1% YOY in August. South Korea’s industrial production unexpectedly fell in August, with output declining 4.8% MOM and 2.2% YOY. Australia’s CPI showed smaller-than-expected increases for August, with prices increasing 0.4% MOM and 4.0% YOY.
In FOREX trading, the U.S. dollar is lower ahead of today’s U.S. PCE inflation data.
Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is 0.8% higher at $90.11/barrel and Brent crude oil is up 0.5% at $103.10/barrel, paring back some of this week’s declines driven by strong flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
In the metals complex, gold is 0.1% higher at $4,184.49/ounce following a weakening U.S. dollar.