Opening Comment — Wednesday, September 16, 2026
DJIA: 52,093.11, down 328.09
S&P 500: 7,585.73, down 34.25
NASDAQ: 25,981.57, down 204.84
Stocks higher ahead of expected Fed hike
Stock futures are higher Wednesday morning ahead of today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy decision, with the Federal Reserve (Fed) widely expected to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points (0.25%). Investors will also be watching for the release of Fed’s updated Summary of Economic Projections and Chair Kevin Warsh’s post-meeting press conference. Meanwhile, economic releases include August retail sales and import prices. As of 7:15 AM ET, the Dow and the S&P 500 Index are both rising 0.2%. The Nasdaq 100 is increasing 0.4% relative to fair value on the GLOBEX.
U.S. equities were lower on Tuesday as oil prices continued rising and the New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey showed the headline general business conditions index declined more than anticipated, falling to 7.6 in September. The Dow was down 0.6%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.8%. The S&P 500 decreased 0.5% with nine of 11 sectors finishing in negative territory. The Energy sector was the top performer, rising 2.3%, while the Consumer Discretionary sector was the bottom performer, falling 1.8%.
On the data front, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s gauge of mortgage applications declined by 4.1% for the week ending September 11 versus the prior week’s decrease of 2.7%. Retail sales are expected to have risen 0.8% month-over-month (MOM) in August versus the prior month’s decrease of 0.6%, while retail sales excluding autos are forecasted to have risen 0.6% MOM versus the prior month’s decrease of 0.3%. Import prices are expected to have increased by 0.5% MOM and 6.6% year-over-year (YOY) in August, versus the prior month’s decrease of 0.4% and increase of 5.9%, respectively. Meanwhile, export prices are expected to have increased 0.6% MOM and 8.9% YOY in August, versus the prior month’s decrease of 1.3% and increase of 8.2%, respectively. The New York Fed will release their Business Leaders Survey for September, with the headline business activity index expected to fall to negative 2.2 from the prior month’s 0.5. Business inventories are expected to have increased 0.8% MOM in July, versus the prior month’s little change. The National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index is forecasted to decrease to 34 for September from the prior month’s 35. The Department of Energy’s measure of crude oil inventories is expected to have decreased by 1.500 million barrels for the week ending September 11 versus the prior week’s decrease of 391,000.
Across the pond, European stocks are higher in mid-day trading as the U.K.’s headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated in line with expectations in August, rising 0.5% MOM and 3.1% YOY, while core inflation remained unchanged at 2.6% YOY. Meanwhile, the country’s Retail Price Index (RPI) increased less than expected. The British House Price Index for July showed an increase of 1.4% YOY. The eurozone’s industrial production fell less than anticipated in July, slipping 0.1% MOM, while annual output unexpectedly remained unchanged YOY.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were mostly higher as Japan’s trade deficit widened more than expected in August, as exports and imports rose by a stronger-than-anticipated 19.3% and 28.0% YOY, respectively. Meanwhile, the country’s core machine orders for July declined 3.7% MOM, a sharper drop than forecast, although they remained resilient on an annual basis, increasing 11.2% YOY, above expectations. Australia’s Westpac Leading Index declined 0.04% MOM in August.
In FOREX trading, the U.S. dollar is slightly higher as investors await today’s Fed policy decision.
Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is 2.1% lower at $103.59/barrel, retracing some of this week’s gains.
In the metals complex, gold is 1.3% higher at $4,347.32/ounce despite a strengthening U.S. dollar.