Opening Comment — Wednesday, August 26, 2026
DJIA: 53,577.40, up 160.24
S&P 500: 7,677.28, up 24.42
NASDAQ: 26,151.30, up 171.11
Stocks lower before PCE data
Stock futures are mostly lower Wednesday morning ahead of today’s personal income, personal spending, and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator (the Federal Reserve’s [Fed’s] preferred gauge of inflation) data for July, along with the second reading of second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP). Meanwhile, investors await earnings from a major chip producer, due today after market close. Markets are also continuing to evaluate U.S.-Canadian tariff developments. As of 7:43 AM ET, the Dow is little changed, while the S&P 500 is down 0.1%. The Nasdaq 100 is falling 0.2% relative to fair value on the GLOBEX.
U.S. equities were higher on Tuesday as August consumer confidence came in lower than expected, declining to 89.4. Separately, measures of U.S. home price growth were mixed in June, while July’s new home sales declined more than expected to an annualized rate of 607,000. The Dow was up 0.3%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.7%. The S&P 500 increased 0.3% with seven of 11 sectors finishing in positive territory. The Information Technology sector was the top performer, rising 1.0%, while the Energy sector was the bottom performer, falling 1.7%.
On the data front, the Mortgage Banker Association’s gauge of mortgage applications decreased by 1.0% for the week ending August 21 versus the prior week’s decrease of 0.4%. Personal income and personal spending for July are expected to have increased 0.2% and 0.1% month-over-month (MOM), respectively, compared to the prior month’s gains of 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively. Meanwhile, July’s PCE Price Index is expected to have increased 0.1% MOM and 3.6% year-over-year (YOY), compared to the prior month’s decline of 0.1% MOM and increase of 3.7% YOY, respectively. The core PCE Price Index is projected to have risen 0.2% MOM and 3.3% YOY, versus the prior month’s 0.1% MOM and 3.3% YOY. Separately, preliminary July durable goods orders are expected to have increased 0.5% MOM, matching the prior month’s gain. Meanwhile, the second estimate of second-quarter GDP, personal consumption, the GDP Price Index, and the core PCE Price Index are expected to remain unchanged at annualized growth rates of 1.5%, 3.2%, 6.2%, and 3.4%, respectively. The Department of Energy’s measure of crude oil inventories is expected to have increased by 1.58 million barrels for the week ending August 21 versus the prior week’s increase of 4.40 million barrels.
Across the pond, European stocks are mostly higher in mid-day trading as the U.K.’s retail activity weakened sharply in August, as the Confederation of British Industry’s reported sales balance fell to -48 from -26 in July, deteriorating more than expected.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were mixed as Japan’s Services Producer Price Index accelerated more than expected to 3.6% YOY in July, up from the prior month’s revised 3.4%. Australia’s July Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in above expectations, with headline CPI rising 1.0% MOM and 3.5% YOY. The country’s Westpac Leading Index eased to 0.03% MOM in July. Separately, South Korea’s July retail sales growth slowed to 6.4% YOY from 9.5%.
In FOREX trading, the U.S. dollar is slightly higher ahead of today’s U.S. PCE data.
Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is 2.5% lower at $80.30/barrel ahead of an expected increase in U.S. oil inventories.
In the metals complex, gold is 0.8% lower at $4,620.93/ounce following a strengthening U.S. dollar.