Closing Comment — Friday, January 27, 2023
DJIA: 33,978.08, up 28.67
S&P 500: 4,070.56, up 10.13
Nasdaq: 11,621.71, up 109.30
Stocks end week in the green
U.S. equities finished higher Friday amid a rally in technology shares and as investors looked ahead to next week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. The central bank is widely expected to downshift to a 25 basis point (0.25%) interest rate hike. The Dow climbed 28 points and notched a 1.8% weekly gain. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1% and jumped 4.3% for the week despite disappointing fourth-quarter earnings results from some technology companies. The S&P 500 added 0.3% and climbed 2.5% for the week.
On the data front, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Deflator, the Fed’s preferred proxy for inflation, eased to 5% year-over-year in December from the prior month’s 5.5% annualized rate. The PCE Deflator also climbed 0.1% month-over-month. Meanwhile, the Core PCE Deflator (which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices) showed prices rose 4.4% year-over-year in December and 0.3% month-over-month. Real personal spending, which is adjusted for inflation, fell more than expected, down 0.3% in December. Elsewhere, pending home sales unexpectedly climbed 2.5% in December, and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index was revised upwards for January. The short- and long-term inflation expectations components were downwardly revised, signaling inflation expectations are continuing to retreat.
Treasuries weakened, with the yield on the 10-year note up two basis points (0.02%) to 3.51%, while the 30-year bond yield was little changed at 3.63%. The yield on the two-year note climbed one basis point (0.01%) to 4.20%. In commodities, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude reversed earlier gains to fall 2% to $79.42/barrel amid reports of increased supply out of Russia.
Opening Comment — Friday, January 27, 2023
DJIA: 33,949.41, up 205.57
S&P 500: 4,060.43, up 44.21
Nasdaq: 11,512.41, up 199.05
Stocks down amid weakening data
U.S. equity futures are slightly lower in premarket trading Friday after December’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) slowed in December. Meanwhile, investors will continue to parse through earnings releases for further clues about the global economy. The Dow is down 0.1% and the S&P 500 is declining 0.4% in pre-market action, while the Nasdaq 100 is trading 0.5% below fair value on the GLOBEX. On Thursday, U.S. equities finished higher as investors weighed a rally in mega-cap technology shares against a mixed Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report. Annualized quarter-over-quarter GDP topped analysts’ 2.6% projection by coming in at 2.9% while the GDP Price Index eased slightly to 3.5% from last quarter’s 4.4%. The Dow added 205 points, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.8%, and the S&P 500 advanced 1.1%.
On the data front, PCE, which is the preferred inflation measurement for the Federal Reserve (Fed), will dominate headlines after December’s PCE deflator topped analyst’s 0% expectations by coming in at a 1% growth month-over-month while the year-over-year slightly eased 0.5% to 5%. Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy, came in at 3%, up from last month’s 0.2% monthly print and reported a 4.4% yearly growth. Meanwhile, personal spending in December met analyst expectations by slowing to -0.2% amid a weakening consumer. Rounding out today’s docket, market participants can expect readings on December’s pending home sales and January’s finalized print of the University of Michigan’s sentiment and inflation data.
In corporate earnings news, before market open, American Express Company (AXP) announced its guidance surpassed Wall Street’s forecast as it expects earnings to range between $11 and $11.40 this year. The company also announced a growth in revenue between 15% and 17% from 2022. Meanwhile after the bell Thursday, Intel Corp (INTC) missed estimates and reported a weak 2023 outlook amid a souring market for its chips and growing competition. Visa Inc (V) saw profits rise 6% and revenue up 12% in 2022.
Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is increasing 1.7% to $82.38/barrel amid stronger-than-expected growth in the U.S. Next week, investors will be looking towards the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies’ (OPEC+) review of production levels at its February 1 meeting. Meanwhile, the Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count for the week ended January 27 is slated to be release at 1pm ET today.
Across the pond, British Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt announced earlier this morning his plans to push ahead with tax hikes. His comments come after he stressed the need to develop Brexit into a “catalyst” for growth in the U.K. and the importance of becoming a place where large corporations want to do business. Overnight in Asia, markets are still closed in China for the New Year holiday. Elsewhere, Tokyo’s consumer prices surged higher than expected to 4.3% in January, rising for its eighth consecutive month. Yesterday’s inflation reading notched a 42-year high as prices remain more resilient than the Bank of Japan originally thought. In FOREX trading, the U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.1% against a basket of major currencies as investors await the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) meeting next week.