Opening Comment — Friday, September 26, 2025
DJIA: 45,947.32, down 173.96
S&P 500: 6,604.72, down 33.25
NASDAQ: 22,384.70, down 113.16
Stocks mixed ahead of PCE data
Stock futures are little changed Friday morning after U.S President Donald Trump unveiled new tariffs, including a 100% duty on pharmaceuticals and levies on heavy trucks and furniture. Investors are looking forward to today’s August personal spending, personal income, and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator data. As of 7:18 AM ET, the Dow is rising 0.1%, while the S&P 500 is flat. The Nasdaq 100 is falling 0.1% relative to fair value on the GLOBEX.
U.S. equities were lower on Thursday as markets contended with a barrage of economic data and Federal Reserve (Fed) commentary. The third reading of second-quarter gross domestic product was unexpectedly revised higher to an annualized 3.8% quarter-over-quarter, while August’s preliminary durable goods orders rose unexpectedly. Existing home sales came in higher than expected, while both initial and continuing jobless claims fell. The Dow was down 0.4%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.5%. The S&P 500 decreased 0.5% with nine of 11 sectors finishing in negative territory. The Energy sector was the top performer, rising 0.9%, while the Health Care sector was the bottom performer, falling 1.7%.
Technical Analysis
None at this time.
On the data front, personal income is expected to have increased 0.3% month-over-month (MOM) in August, slower than the prior month’s 0.4%, while personal spending is expected to have increased 0.5% MOM, similar to the prior month’s increase. The PCE deflator for August is expected to have risen 0.3% MOM and 2.7% year-over-year (YOY), versus the prior month’s 0.2% and 2.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, the core PCE deflator for August is expected to have increased 0.2% MOM, from the prior month’s 0.3%, and 2.9% YOY, similar to the prior month’s reading. The finalized September reading of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan is expected to come in at 55.4, while one-year and 5-10-year inflation expectations are projected to come in at 4.8% and 3.9%, all unchanged from the initial readings.
Across the pond, European stocks are higher in mid-day trading as the European Central Bank’s survey of one- and three-year ahead annual inflation expectations for August came in at 2.8% and 2.5%, respectively.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were mostly lower as Japan’s Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in lower than expected at 2.5% YOY, similar to the prior month’s downwardly revised increase.
In FOREX trading, the dollar is slightly lower ahead of today’s U.S. PCE data.
Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is 0.4% lower at $64.71/barrel.
In the metals complex, gold is 0.1% higher at $3,746.27/ounce following a weakening dollar.