Opening Comment — Friday, August 15, 2025
DJIA: 44,911.26, down 11.01
S&P 500: 6,468.54, up 1.96
NASDAQ: 21,710.67, down 2.47
Stocks mixed ahead of myriad econ releases
Stock futures are mixed Friday morning ahead of today’s economic releases, including data on retail sales, industrial production, import prices, and consumer sentiment. As of 7:10 AM ET, the Dow is rising 0.7%, while the S&P 500 is up 0.2%. The Nasdaq 100 is falling 0.1% relative to fair value on the GLOBEX.
U.S. equities were little changed on Thursday as markets refigured their Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut expectations following a significantly hotter-than-expected July Producer Price Index report, wherein prices rose 0.9% month-over-month (MOM) and year-over-year (YOY) inflation accelerated to 3.3%. The Dow was little changed, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was also little changed. The S&P 500 was little changed with four of 11 sectors finishing in positive territory. The Financials sector was the top performer, rising 0.6%, while the Industrials sector was the bottom performer, falling 0.9%.
On the data front, retail sales are expected to have risen 0.6% MOM in July, similar to the prior month’s increase, while retail sales excluding autos are forecasted to have risen 0.3% MOM versus the prior month’s 0.5%. The New York Fed will release their August Empire State Manufacturing Survey, with the headline general business conditions index expected to come in at 0.0 from the prior month’s positive 5.5. The July Import Price Index is projected to have increased 0.1% MOM and declined 0.2% YOY, both similar to the prior month’s changes, while the Export Price Index is forecasted to have increased 0.1% MOM and 2.5% YOY, easing from the prior month’s 0.5% and 2.8%, respectively. Industrial production is expected to be little changed in July versus the prior month’s increase of 0.3%, while capacity utilization is forecasted to remain steady at 77.6%. Business inventories are expected to have increased by 0.2% MOM in June versus the prior month’s no change. The University of Michigan’s preliminary August reading of consumer sentiment is forecasted to come in at 62.0, higher than the prior month’s 61.7. The one- and 5-10-year inflation expectations for August from the University of Michigan are expected to come in at 4.4% and 3.4%, respectively, compared to the prior month’s 4.5% and 3.4%, respectively.
Technical Analysis
As of midday Thursday, the S&P 500 Index is still in an uptrend, with support at the 50-day and 200-day moving averages (6218 and 5926, respectively) and resistance hard to pinpoint.
Across the pond, European stocks are higher in mid-day trading as investors look forward to next week’s data releases, including preliminary August purchasing managers’ indexes.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were mostly higher following Japan’s preliminary reading of second-quarter gross domestic product showing a stronger-than-expected 1.0% annualized increase. Meanwhile, China’s growth in retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investment all decelerated more than forecasted in July, while the country’s urban unemployment rate rose more than projected to 5.2%.
In FOREX trading, the dollar is lower ahead of today’s major U.S. economic releases.
Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is 0.5% lower at $63.62/barrel ahead of a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
In the metals complex, gold is 0.2% higher at $3,341.70/ounce following a weakening dollar.