Opening Comment — Tuesday, August 12, 2025
DJIA: 43,975.09, down 200.52
S&P 500: 6,373.45, down 16.00
NASDAQ: 21,385.40, down 64.62
Stocks lower ahead of CPI data
Stock futures are lower Tuesday morning ahead of today’s July Consumer Price Index (CPI) and federal budget balance data. Meanwhile, a reading of small business optimism increased more-than-expected in July. As of 7:16 AM ET, the Dow and the S&P 500 Index are both decreasing 0.1%. The Nasdaq 100 is also falling 0.1% relative to fair value on the GLOBEX.
U.S. equities were lower on Monday following President Donald Trump and China agreeing to prolong the U.S.-China tariff reprieve by 90 days, which helped to calm trade tensions. The Dow was down 0.5%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.3%. The S&P 500 decreased 0.3% with eight of 11 sectors finishing in negative territory. The Consumer Staples sector was the top performer, rising 0.2%, while the Energy sector was the bottom performer, falling 0.8%.
On the data front, the National Federation of Independent Business’s gauge of small business optimism increased to 100.3 in July from the prior month’s 98.6. The headline CPI for July is expected to show price increases of 0.2% month-over-month (MOM) and 2.8% year-over-year (YOY), versus the prior month’s increases of 0.3% and 2.7%, respectively. Meanwhile, core CPI is expected to show price increases of 0.3% MOM and 3.0% YOY, versus the prior month’s increases of 0.2% and 2.9%, respectively. Data on July’s average hourly and weekly earnings is also scheduled for release. The U.S. federal budget balance for July is expected to show a deficit of $239.2 billion versus the prior month’s surplus of $27.0 billion.
Across the pond, European stocks are mixed in mid-day trading as the U.K.’s three-month average unemployment rate through June remained steady at 4.7% and average weekly earnings growth eased more than projected. Meanwhile, the country’s jobless claims fell and the claimant count rate eased slightly in July. ZEW measures of economic growth expectations for both the eurozone and Germany declined in August.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were mixed as the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its official cash rate target by 25 basis points (0.25%) to 3.60%. Meanwhile, National Australia Bank’s measure of business confidence rose in July.
In FOREX trading, the dollar is little changed ahead of today’s U.S. CPI data release.
Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is 0.1% higher at $64.03/barrel as the tariff truce was extended between the U.S. and China.
In the metals complex, gold is little changed at $3,353.20/ounce.