Opening Comment — Thursday, June 25, 2026
DJIA: 51,848.90, up 182.06
S&P 500: 7,358.22, down 7.24
NASDAQ: 25,476.63, down 110.41
Stocks higher ahead of PCE data
Stock futures are higher Thursday morning ahead of today’s economic releases, including the third reading of first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) and May’s personal income, personal spending, and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator (the Federal Reserve’s [Fed’s] preferred gauge of inflation) data. As of 7:15 AM ET, the Dow is rising 0.2%, while the S&P 500 is up 0.7%. The Nasdaq 100 is increasing 2.2% relative to fair value on the GLOBEX.
U.S. equities were mixed on Wednesday as new home sales unexpectedly declined to an annualized rate of 580,000 in May. Meanwhile, the U.S. current account deficit widened in the first quarter, coming in at $226.8 billion compared with the prior quarter’s upwardly revised deficit of $221.1 billion. The Dow was up 0.4%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%. The S&P 500 decreased 0.1% with five of 11 sectors finishing in negative territory. The Industrials sector was the top performer, rising 1.2%, while the Energy sector was the bottom performer, falling 1.7%.
On the data front, personal income is expected to have increased 0.4% month-over-month (MOM) in May, versus the prior month’s little change, while personal spending is expected to have increased 0.6% MOM in May compared to the prior month’s 0.5% increase. The PCE deflator for May is expected to accelerate to 0.5% MOM and 4.1% year-over-year (YOY) from the prior month’s 0.4% and 3.8%, respectively. Meanwhile, the core PCE deflator for May is expected to have increased 0.3% MOM and 3.4% YOY compared to the prior month’s 0.2% and 3.3%, respectively. The third readings of first-quarter GDP, GDP Price Index, core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, and personal consumption are expected to come in at annualized growth rates of 1.6%, 3.5%, 4.4% and 1.4%, respectively, all unchanged from the prior readings. Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 20 are expected to come in at 225,000, slightly lower than the prior week’s 226,000, while continuing claims for the week ending June 13 are forecasted to have been 1.802 million versus the prior week’s 1.810 million. The preliminary reading of May’s durable goods orders is forecasted to show a decrease of 5.0% MOM, compared to the prior month’s 8.0% increase. The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index for May is expected to come in at 0.15, up from the prior month’s 0.14. The Kansas City Fed will release their Manufacturing Survey for June, with the composite index expected to come in at 6.0, down from the prior month’s 8.0.
Across the pond, European stocks are higher in mid-day trading as Germany's consumer confidence index improved less than expected to -29.2, following a slightly upwardly revised reading of -29.7 in the prior month. Meanwhile, France’s June consumer confidence rose to 84, slightly below the forecast of 83.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were mostly higher as Australia’s employment change came in higher than projected for May, while the unemployment rate eased to 4.4% and the country’s labor force participation rate increased to 66.7%. Meanwhile, the country’s household spending for May showed stronger-than-projected increases of 1.3% MOM and 5.5% YOY. Japan’s nationwide department store sales in May increased by 8.3% YOY and the country’s finalized April Leading Index was revised slightly higher.
In FOREX trading, the U.S. dollar is slightly higher ahead of today’s U.S PCE deflator data.
Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is 1.1% lower at $69.56/barrel as markets evaluate the flow of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
In the metals complex, gold is 0.4% lower at $3,983.53/ounce following a strengthening U.S. dollar.