Opening Comment — Friday, September 12, 2025
DJIA: 46,108.00, up 617.08
S&P 500: 6,587.47, up 55.43
NASDAQ: 22,043.07, up 157.01
Stocks lower to end out week
Stock futures are mostly lower Friday morning ahead of today’s preliminary September reading of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan. As of 6:41 AM ET, the yield on the 10-year note is rising one basis point (0.01%) to 4.03%, while the 30-year bond yield is unchanged at 4.65%. The yield on the two-year note, which is more sensitive to changes in monetary policy, is up one basis point (0.01%) to 3.55%. As of 7:14 AM ET, the Dow is decreasing 0.2%, while the S&P 500 is down 0.1%. The Nasdaq 100 is little changed relative to fair value on the GLOBEX.
U.S. equities were higher on Thursday as the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) registered a stronger-than-expected 0.4% month-over-month (MOM) increase in August and accelerated to 2.9% year-over-year (YOY) on a headline basis, in line with expectations. The core CPI (which excludes food and energy) rose 0.3% MOM and 3.1% YOY in August, similar to the prior month. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims rose significantly to the highest level in nearly four years and continuing claims came in lower than projected. The Dow was up 1.4%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.7%. The S&P 500 increased 0.9% with 10 of 11 sectors finishing in positive territory. The Materials sector was the top performer, rising 2.1%, while the Energy sector was the bottom performer, ending the day little changed.
Technical Analysis
As of midday Thursday, the S&P 500 Index is still in an uptrend, with support at the 50-day and 200-day moving averages (6378 and 5982, respectively) and resistance hard to pinpoint.
On the data front, the University of Michigan’s preliminary September reading of consumer sentiment is forecasted to come in at 58.0, lower than the prior month’s 58.2. The one- and 5-10-year inflation expectations for September from the University of Michigan are expected to come in at 4.8% and 3.4%, respectively, compared to the prior month’s 4.8% and 3.5%, respectively.
Across the pond, European stocks are mostly lower in mid-day trading as the European Central Bank held interest rates steady at its September meeting, maintaining the deposit rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending facility at 2.40%. The U.K.’s gross domestic product showed little change MOM in July. British industrial production declined 0.9% MOM in July against expectations of no change and registered a smaller-than-expected increase of 0.1% YOY. Meanwhile, the country’s trade deficit unexpectedly widened in July. The finalized August CPI for France and Germany remained unchanged from the initial readings of 0.9% and 2.2% YOY, respectively.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were mostly higher as Japan’s capacity utilization declined by 1.1% MOM in July. Meanwhile, the country’s finalized July industrial production was revised upward, though output still declined by 1.2% MOM and 0.4% YOY. China’s M1 money supply increased by 6.0% YOY in August, while M2 grew by 8.8%.
In FOREX trading, the dollar is slightly higher following this week’s U.S. inflation data.
In the metals complex, gold is 0.4% higher at $3,660.50/ounce despite a strengthening dollar.
This content includes material generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence.