Opening Comment — Thursday, April 30, 2026
DJIA: 48,861.81, down 280.12
S&P 500: 7,135.95, down 2.85
NASDAQ: 24,673.24, up 9.44
Stocks higher ahead of PCE data
Stock futures are higher Thursday morning as investors digest yesterday’s major technology firms’ earnings and ahead of today’s economic releases, including the advance reading of first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) and March’s personal income, personal spending, and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Deflator (the Federal Reserve’s [Fed’s] preferred gauge of inflation). As of 7:19 AM ET, the Dow is rising 0.6%, while the S&P 500 is up 0.4%. The Nasdaq 100 is also increasing 0.4% relative to fair value on the GLOBEX.
U.S. equities were mostly unchanged on Wednesday as the Fed kept their policy rate range steady at 3.50%-3.75% in a divided decision and Jerome Powell announced he’d remain as a Fed Governor until “this investigation is well and truly over with transparency and finality.” The advance goods trade deficit widened slightly less than expected in March and the preliminary reading of durable goods orders registered a stronger-than-projected increase. Meanwhile, housing starts rose unexpectedly in March, increasing 10.8% month over month (MOM), following a 3.0% MOM decline in February, and the preliminary reading of March building permits largely reversed February’s strong gain. The Dow was down 0.6%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was little changed. The S&P 500 was little changed with four of 11 sectors finishing in positive territory. The Energy sector was the top performer, rising 2.4%, while the Utilities sector was the bottom performer, falling 1.2%.
On the data front, personal income is expected to have increased 0.3% MOM in March, versus the prior month’s decrease of 0.1%, while personal spending is expected to have increased 0.9% MOM compared to the prior month’s increase of 0.5%. The PCE deflator for March is expected to have risen 0.7% MOM and 3.5% year-over-year (YOY), versus the prior month’s 0.4% and 2.8%, respectively. Meanwhile, the core PCE deflator for March is expected to ease to 0.3% MOM from the prior month’s 0.4% but projected to accelerate to 3.2% YOY from the prior month’s 3.0%. Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 25 are expected to come in at 212,000, slightly lower than the prior week’s 214,000. Continuing claims are expected to fall to 1.815 million for the week ending April 18 from the prior week’s 1.821 million. The first-quarter Employment Cost Index is projected to increase 0.8% quarter-over-quarter (QOQ) compared to the prior quarter’s 0.7% rise. The advance reading of first-quarter GDP, the GDP Price Index, the core PCE Price Index, and personal consumption are expected to come in at annualized growth rates of 2.3%, 3.9%, 4.1%, and 1.4%, respectively, compared to the prior quarter’s annualized increases of 0.5%, 3.7%, 2.7%, and 1.9%, respectively. The Market News International Chicago purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for April is expected to come in at 54.9, up from the prior month’s 52.8. The Leading Index for March is forecasted to show a decline of 0.2%.
Across the pond, European stocks are mixed in mid-day trading as the Bank of England kept their policy rate at 3.75% in an 8-1 decision and talked about the potential for future rate hikes if energy-related inflation remains problematic. The preliminary readings of the eurozone’s, France’s, and Germany’s first-quarter GDP showed little to no growth. Meanwhile, price increases around the region, as measured by Consumer Price Indexes, accelerated mostly as expected. The eurozone’s unemployment rate for March ticked down to 6.2% following the prior month’s upwardly revised reading, while Germany’s unemployment claims rate remained steady at 6.4% following the prior month’s upwardly revised reading.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were mostly lower as China’s official government April manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs declined to 50.3 and 49.4, respectively. The country’s private manufacturing PMI rose more than expected to 52.2 in April. South Korea’s industrial production for March registered smaller-than-expected increases of 0.3% MOM and 3.6% YOY. Japan’s s preliminary industrial production for March unexpectedly fell, decreasing by 0.5% MOM, while the country’s retail sales for March registered stronger-than-expected increases of 1.3% MOM and 1.7% YOY. Australia’s first quarter Export Price Index posted a smaller than expected increase of 0.5% QOQ, while the Import Price Index unexpectedly rose by 0.1% QOQ.
In FOREX trading, the U.S. dollar is lower following the recent slew of central bank meetings and ahead of today’s policy decision from the European Central Bank.
Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is 0.1% lower at $106.79/barrel despite a greater-than-expected decline in U.S. crude oil inventories.
In the metals complex, gold is 2.0% higher at $4,637.70/ounce following a weakening U.S. dollar.