Opening Comment — Friday, March 13, 2026
DJIA: 46,677.85, down 739.42
S&P 500: 6,672.62, down 103.18
NASDAQ: 22,311.98, down 404.15
Stocks higher ahead of PCE data
Stock futures are higher Friday morning as investors are looking forward to today’s key economic releases, including January’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), personal income, personal spending, and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator (the Federal Reserve’s [Fed’s] preferred gauge of inflation). As of 7:19 AM ET, the Dow and the S&P 500 Index are both rising 0.3%. The Nasdaq 100 is also increasing 0.3% relative to fair value on the GLOBEX.
U.S. equities were lower on Thursday as investors evaluated statements on the Iran War from the country’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei. The U.S. trade deficit declined following a pickup in exports and a decline in imports. Initial jobless claims came in lower than expected, while continuing claims for the week prior decreased. Meanwhile, housing starts rose in January while preliminary building permits data showed slowing activity. The Dow was down 1.6%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 1.8%. The S&P 500 decreased 1.5% with eight of 11 sectors finishing in negative territory. The Energy sector was the top performer, rising 1.0%, while the Industrials sector was the bottom performer, falling 2.5%.
Technical Analysis
As of midday Thursday, the S&P 500 Index is still in an uptrend, with support at the 200-day moving average (6601) and resistance at the 50-day moving average (6890).
On the data front, the second readings of fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP), GDP Price Index, core PCE Price Index, and personal consumption are expected to come in at annualized growth rates of 1.4%, 3.6%, 2.7% and 2.4%, respectively, all unchanged from the prior readings. Personal income is expected to have increased 0.5% month-over-month (MOM) in January, more than the prior month’s increase of 0.3% while personal spending is expected to have increased 0.3% MOM in January less than the prior month’s 0.4%. The PCE deflator for January is expected to have risen 0.3% MOM and 2.9% year-over-year (YOY), versus the prior month’s 0.4% and 2.9%, respectively, while the core PCE deflator is projected to have increased 0.4% MOM and 3.1% YOY, compared to prior month's 0.4% and 3.0%, respectively. The preliminary reading of January’s durable goods orders is forecasted to show a 1.1% MOM increase compared to the prior month’s decline of 1.4%. Meanwhile, the preliminary March reading of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan is expected to come in at 54.8, down from the prior month’s 56.6, while one-year and 5-10-year inflation expectations are projected to come in at 3.7% and 3.4%, respectively, higher than the February readings. The January JOLTS is forecasted to show job openings of 6.8 million.
Across the pond, European stocks are lower in mid-day trading as the U.K.’s January GDP and Index of Services remained flat MOM, while the country’s trade deficit eased more than expected from the prior month. The British January industrial production and manufacturing production decreased by 0.1% and increased 0.1% MOM, respectively. Meanwhile, the eurozone’s industrial production for January unexpectedly declined 1.5% MOM and 1.2% YOY. France's finalized February Consumer Price Index (CPI) was revised slightly lower to a 0.9% YOY and 0.6% MOM.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were lower as China’s M1 money supply increased by 5.9% YOY in February, while M2 grew by 9.0%.
In FOREX trading, the U.S. dollar is higher ahead of today’s U.S. PCE data.
Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is 0.9% lower at $94.84/barrel.
In the metals complex, gold is 0.3% higher at $5,095.52/ounce despite a strengthening U.S. dollar.