Opening Comment — Friday, April 10, 2026
DJIA: 48,185.80, up 275.88
S&P 500: 6,824.66, up 41.85
NASDAQ: 22,822.42, up 187.43
Stocks higher ahead of CPI data
Stock futures are mostly higher Friday morning ahead of today’s economic releases, including the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the preliminary April reading of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan. Investors are also assessing the status of the Iran war ceasefire and the Strait of Hormuz. As of 7:18 AM ET, the Dow is little changed, while the S&P 500 is up 0.1%. The Nasdaq 100 is also increasing 0.1% relative to fair value on the GLOBEX.
U.S. equities were higher on Thursday as the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Deflator, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) preferred gauge of inflation, rose 0.4% month-over-month (MOM) and 3.0% year-over-year (YOY) in February, both in line with expectations. February's personal income unexpectedly declined, falling by 0.1% MOM, and personal spending posted smaller-than-projected increase of 0.5% MOM. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims picked up, though continuing claims for the week prior fell. The third readings of fourth-quarter gross domestic product and consumer spending were revised down to an annualized quarter-over-quarter growth rates of 0.5% and 1.9%, respectively. The yield on the 10-year note was down one basis point (0.01%) to 4.28%, while the 30-year bond yield was unchanged at 4.88%. The yield on the two-year note decreased two basis points (0.02%) to 3.77%. As of end of day Thursday (April 9), futures markets are pricing in no change in the policy rate at the Federal Reserve's upcoming April meeting, with a cumulative eight basis points (0.08%) worth of rate cuts by year-end 2026. The Dow was up 0.6%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.8%. The S&P 500 increased 0.6% with nine of 11 sectors finishing in positive territory. The Consumer Discretionary sector was the top performer, rising 2.5%, while the Energy sector was the bottom performer, falling 1.2%.
Technical Analysis:
As of midday Thursday, the S&P 500 Index is still in an uptrend, with support at the 50 day and 200 day moving averages (6,765 and 6,659, respectively) and resistance at the recent high near 7,000.
On the data front, the headline CPI for March is expected to show price increases of 0.9% MOM and 3.4% YOY versus the prior month’s increases of 0.3% and 2.4%, respectively. Meanwhile, core CPI is expected to show price increases of 0.3% MOM and 2.7% YOY, versus the prior month’s increases of 0.2% and 2.5%, respectively. March data on average hourly and weekly earnings is also scheduled for release. The University of Michigan’s preliminary April reading of consumer sentiment is forecasted to come in at 51.5, lower than the prior month’s 53.3. The one- and 5-10-year inflation expectations for April from the University of Michigan are expected to come in at 4.20% and 3.40%, respectively, compared to the prior month’s 3.80% and 3.20%, respectively. February’s factory orders are expected to have declined 0.2% MOM versus the prior month’s increase of 0.1%. February’s finalized durable goods orders are expected to show a decrease of 1.4% MOM, unchanged from the prior reading. The U.S. federal budget balance for March is expected to show a deficit of $153.3 billion versus the prior month’s $160.5 billion.
Across the pond, European stocks are higher in mid-day trading as Germany’s finalized March CPI remained unchanged from the prior reading, coming in at 1.1% MOM and 2.7% YOY, respectively.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were mostly higher as the Bank of Korea left its base rate unchanged at 2.50%. China’s CPI registered a smaller-than-expected increase of 1.0% YOY, while the country’s Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 0.5% YOY, exceeding forecasts. Meanwhile, Japan’s PPI for March accelerated to 0.8% MOM and 2.6% YOY, respectively, following upward revisions to the prior month’s data.
In FOREX trading, the U.S. dollar is slightly lower as investors await today’s U.S. CPI data.
Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is little changed at $97.89/barrel amidst prospects of a potential diplomatic resolution between Israel and Lebanon.
In the metals complex, gold is 0.2% lower at $4,757.74/ounce despite a weakening U.S. dollar.