Opening Comment — Tuesday, December 23, 2025
DJIA: 48,362.68, up 227.79
S&P 500: 6,878.49, up 43.99
NASDAQ: 23,428.83, up 121.21
Stocks lower ahead of GDP data
Stock futures are mostly lower Tuesday morning ahead of today’s economic releases, including a first look at third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) and inflation, along with December’s consumer confidence data.As of 7:17 AM ET, the Dow is decreasing 0.1%, while the S&P 500 is flat. The Nasdaq 100 is falling 0.1% relative to fair value on the GLOBEX.
U.S. equities were higher on Monday as the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago’s National Activity Index for September improved rose to negative 0.21 versus the prior month’s revised negative 0.31. The Dow was up 0.5%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite also rose 0.5%. The S&P 500 increased 0.6% with 10 of 11 sectors finishing in positive territory. The Materials sector was the top performer, rising 1.4%, while the Consumer Staples sector was the bottom performer, falling 0.4%.
On the data front, third-quarter GDP, the GDP Price Index, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, and personal consumption are expected to come in at annualized growth rates of 3.3%, 2.7%, 2.9%, and 2.7%, respectively, compared to the prior quarter’s annualized increases of 3.8%, 2.1%, 2.6%, and 2.5%, respectively. The Philadelphia Fed will release their Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey for December, with the diffusion index of current general activity forecasted to improve to negative 15.0 from the prior month’s negative 16.3. The preliminary reading of October’s durable goods orders is forecasted to show a decrease of 1.5% month-over-month (MOM), compared to the prior month’s increase of 0.5%. Industrial production is forecasted to have increased 0.1% MOM in November, while capacity utilization is forecasted to come in at 75.9%. The Richmond Fed’s December Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity will be released today, with the headline composite manufacturing index expected to improve to negative 10 from the prior month’s negative 15. The Richmond Fed’s December Fifth District Survey of Service Sector Activity will also be released today, with the headline composite services index expected to improve to negative 9 from the prior month’s negative 15. The Conference Board’s reading of December consumer confidence is projected to come in at 91.0 versus the prior month’s 88.7.
Across the pond, European stocks are mostly lower in mid-day trading as Germany’s Import Price Index registered greater-than-expected increase of 0.5% MOM and a smaller-than-expected decrease of 1.9% year-over-year (YOY) in November.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were mostly higher as South Korea’s retail sales rose 4.2% YOY and department store sales increased by 12.3% YOY in November. Japanese finalized machine tool orders increased by 14.8% YOY in November.
In FOREX trading, the U.S. dollar is lower as investors await today’s first look at the U.S. third-quarter gross domestic product data.
Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is 0.1% higher at $58.06/barrel following continued geopolitical tensions.
In the metals complex, gold is 1.1% higher at $4,492.31/ounce following a weakening U.S. dollar.