Opening Comment — Monday, November 09, 2026
DJIA: 51,285.73, down 237.33
S&P 500: 7,376.86, up 23.13
NASDAQ: 24,579.42, up 264.42
Stocks higher ahead of key inflation data
Stock futures are higher and Treasury yields are little changed before the opening bell Monday as investors are looking ahead to earnings reports and this week’s key inflation releases, including October’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday and Producer Price Index (PPI) on Friday. Meanwhile, China kept tariffs on U.S. goods at 10% by extending a pause on the 24% rate until January. As of 6:56 AM ET, the Dow is rising 1.1%, while the S&P 500 is up 0.6%. The Nasdaq 100 is increasing 0.4% relative to fair value on the GLOBEX. Over in bond land, the yield on the 10-year note is unchanged at 4.86%, while the 30-year bond yield is falling one basis point (0.01%) to 5.25%. The yield on the two-year note, which is more sensitive to changes in monetary policy, is up one basis point (0.01%) to 4.52%.
U.S. equities were mixed and Treasury yields were higher on Friday as markets continue digesting midterm results. Meanwhile, October’s jobs report pointed to stronger-than-expected labor market conditions, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 165,000 and manufacturing payrolls rising by 19,000, while September’s gains were revised higher. Average hourly earnings also increased more-than-expected in October, rising 0.4% month-over-month (MOM) and 3.1% year-over-year (YOY). Meanwhile, October’s unemployment rate eased to 4.1%, while the labor force participation rate edged up to 61.9%, against expectations for both readings to remain unchanged. The University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for November increased to 51.0 against expectations of holding steady, while inflation expectations dropped more-than-expected to 4.3% for the one-year outlook and edged down to 3.4% for the 5-to-10-year horizon, with the latter expected to remain unchanged. Consumer credit showed a larger-than-expected increase in September, expanding by $27.84 billion. The Dow was down 0.5%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 1.1%. The S&P 500 increased 0.3% with four of 11 sectors finishing in positive territory. The Information Technology sector was the top performer, rising 1.3%, while the Consumer Staples sector was the bottom performer, falling 1.2%. The yield on the 10-year note was up three basis points (0.03%) to 4.86%, while the 30-year bond yield rose one basis point (0.01%) to 5.26%. The yield on the two-year note increased five basis points (0.05%) to 4.51%.
On the data front, the finalized September reading of wholesale inventories is expected to show an increase of 0.6% MOM, similar to the initial reading. The Federal Reserve (Fed) of New York will release their October Survey of Consumer Expectations, with the measure of one-year inflation expectations projected to come in at 3.79%, down from the prior month’s 3.90%.
In the auction space, the U.S. Treasury is set to issue $95 billion in 13-week bills, $82 billion in 26-week bills, $100 billion in six-week bills, and $58 billion in three-year notes.
In the central bank space, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee are scheduled to speak today.
Municipal market commentary
The Bloomberg 30-day visible supply fell $1.481 billion to $9.323 billion on Friday, below the 12-month average of $15.744 billion.
Across the pond, European stocks are higher in mid-day trading as Germany’s September trade surplus unexpectedly narrowed to €15.6 ($17.4) billion, while August’s surplus was revised down to €17.9 ($20.0) billion. The country’s exports and imports increased by a stronger-than-expected 2.0% and 4.2% MOM, respectively, in September, following the prior month’s upwardly revised decline in exports and downwardly revised increase in imports.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were mostly higher as China’s October PPI rose more-than-anticipated to 5.7% YOY, while headline and core CPI inflation slowed more-than-projected to 0.7% and 0.8% YOY, respectively. Meanwhile, Japan’s preliminary Leading Economic Index for September fell more-than-expected to 116.4.
In FOREX trading, the U.S. dollar is lower ahead of this week’s U.S. inflation data.
Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is 3.0% lower at $88.12/barrel and Brent crude oil is down 3.6% at $94.80/barrel following future outlooks for an easing of tensions in the Middle East conflict.
In the metals complex, gold is 1.0% higher at $4,109.35/ounce following a weakening U.S. dollar.