Opening Comment — Tuesday, July 01, 2025
DJIA: 44,094.77, up 275.50
S&P 500: 6,204.95, up 31.88
NASDAQ: 20,369.73, up 96.27
Stocks lower ahead of PMI data
Stock futures are lower Tuesday morning ahead of today’s May job openings data and June’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs). Investors are also looking forward to comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell. As of 7:17 AM ET, the Dow is decreasing 0.1%, while the S&P 500 is down 0.2%. The Nasdaq 100 is also falling 0.2% relative to fair value on the GLOBEX.
U.S. equities were higher on Monday, with the S&P 500 ending the month on a new all-time high. The Market News International Chicago PMI for June unexpectedly fell to 40.4. Meanwhile, the Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey showed the general business activity index for June posting a weaker than expected improvement. The Dow was up 0.6%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.5%. The S&P 500 increased 0.5% with nine of 11 sectors finishing in positive territory. The Information Technology sector was the top performer, rising 1.0%, while the Consumer Discretionary sector was the bottom performer, falling 0.9%.
On the data front, the finalized reading of S&P Global’s manufacturing PMI for June is expected to remain unchanged from the prior reading of 52.0. The Institute for Supply Management’s June manufacturing PMI and prices paid component are expected to come in at 48.8 and 69.5, respectively, versus the prior month’s 48.5 and 69.4, respectively. Construction spending is projected to have decreased 0.2% month-over-month in May, versus the prior month’s decrease of 0.4%. The May Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is forecasted to show job openings of 7.30 million, versus the prior month’s 7.39 million. The Dallas Fed will release their Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey for June.
Across the pond, European stocks are mostly lower in mid-day trading as the preliminary June Consumer Price Index for the eurozone came in as expected, accelerating on a headline basis to a 2.0% year-over-year (YOY) increase, while the core measure’s growth remained steady at 2.3% YOY. Finalized June manufacturing PMIs for France, Germany, the eurozone, and the U.K. still showed the respective manufacturing sectors in contractionary territory.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were mixed as Japan’s second-quarter Tankan report showed sentiment at large manufacturers unexpectedly rising, while sentiment at large non-manufacturers fell. China’s private manufacturing PMI from Caixin for June rose into expansionary territory. South Korea’s Manufacturing PMI for June rose slightly but remained in contractionary territory, while the country’s trade surplus widened more than forecasted in June, following both exports and imports rising less than projected.
In FOREX trading, the dollar is lower ahead of today’s U.S. PMI data.
Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is 0.6% higher at $65.48/barrel.
In the metals complex, gold is 1.5% higher at $3,358.10/ounce following a weakening dollar.