Opening Comment — Friday, February 20, 2026
DJIA: 49,395.16, down 267.50
S&P 500: 6,861.89, down 19.42
NASDAQ: 22,682.73, down 70.90
Stocks lower ahead of GDP Data
Stock futures are lower Friday morning ahead of today’s economic releases, including a first look at fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP), December’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator, and preliminary February purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data from S&P Global. As of 7:18 AM ET, the Dow and the S&P 500 Index are both decreasing 0.1%. The Nasdaq 100 is also falling 0.1% relative to fair value on the GLOBEX.
U.S. equities were lower on Thursday as initial jobless claims decreased while continuing claims for the week prior increased. The U.S. trade deficit for December unexpectedly widened, coming in at $70.3 billion. Meanwhile, pending home sales unexpectedly declined in January. The Dow was down 0.5%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.3%. The S&P 500 decreased 0.3% with eight of 11 sectors finishing in negative territory. The Utilities sector was the top performer, rising 1.1%, while the Financials sector was the bottom performer, falling 0.9%.
Technical Analysis
As of midday Thursday, the S&P 500 Index is still in an uptrend, with support at the 200 day moving average (6,523) and resistance at the 50 day moving average (6,894).
On the data front, personal income is expected to have increased 0.3% month-over-month (MOM) in December, similar to the prior month’s change, while personal spending is expected to have increased 0.3% MOM in December compared to the prior month’s increase of 0.5%. The PCE deflator for December is expected to have risen 0.3% MOM and 2.8% year-over-year (YOY), versus the prior month’s 0.2% and 2.8%, respectively, while the core PCE deflator is projected to have increased 0.3% MOM and 2.9% YOY, up from the prior month's 0.2% and 2.8%, respectively. The advance readings of fourth-quarter GDP, GDP Price Index, core PCE deflator, and personal consumption are expected to come in at annualized growth rates of 2.8%, 2.8%, 2.6% and 2.4%, respectively, down from the prior quarter’s 4.4%, 3.8%, 2.9%, and 3.5%, respectively. Meanwhile, the preliminary reading of S&P Global’s composite PMI for February is expected to come in at 53.1, slightly higher from the prior month’s 53.0, with the manufacturing and services PMIs forecasted at 52.4 and 53.0, respectively, compared to the prior month’s 52.4 and 52.7, respectively. New home sales are projected to have been at an annualized 730,000 pace in December, with the delayed November data also set for release. The finalized February’s reading of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan is expected to come in at 57.3, while one-year and 5-10-year inflation expectations are projected to come in at 3.5% and 3.4%, all unchanged from the prior readings.
Across the pond, European stocks are higher in mid-day trading as the eurozone’s preliminary February manufacturing and services PMIs rose to 50.8 and 51.8, respectively, while Germany’s readings increased to 50.7 and 53.4, respectively. Germany’s January Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly declined by 0.6% MOM, while falling 3.0% YOY. France’s manufacturing PMI fell to 49.9, while the services PMI increased to 49.6. The U.K.’s manufacturing PMI rose to 52.0, while the services PMI declined slightly to 53.9. The country’s retail sales registered a greater-than-expected increase of 1.8% MOM.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were mixed as Japan’s national Consumer Price Index decelerated more than expected in January to 1.5% YOY on a headline basis, while the core reading came in as expected to 2.0% YOY. Japan’s preliminary manufacturing and services PMIs for February rose to 52.8 and 53.8, respectively, while Australia’s PMIs fell to 51.5 and 52.2, respectively.
In FOREX trading, the U.S. dollar is little changed as investors await today’s first look at the U.S. fourth-quarter GDP data.
Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is 0.1% lower at $66.36/barrel.
In the metals complex, gold is 0.5% higher at $5,019.73/ounce.