Opening Comment — Thursday, September 18, 2025
DJIA: 46,018.32, up 260.42
S&P 500: 6,600.35, down 6.41
NASDAQ: 22,261.33, down 72.63
Stocks higher ahead of jobless claims data
Stock futures are higher Thursday morning ahead of today’s economic releases, including data on initial and continuing jobless claims. As of 7:19 AM ET, the Dow is rising 0.7%, while the S&P 500 is up 0.8%. The Nasdaq 100 is increasing 1.1% relative to fair value on the GLOBEX.
U.S. equities were mixed on Wednesday as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in an 11–1 vote cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (0.25%), lowering the target range to 4.00%–4.25%. In his post-meeting press conference, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell pointed to weakness in the labor market, saying “labor demand has softened, and the recent pace of job creation appears to be running below the break-even rate needed to hold the unemployment rate constant.” The updated Summary of Economic Projections showed a median forecast of two further cuts this year, but then just one more in 2026. Meanwhile, both housing starts and preliminary building permits data showed slowing activity in August. The Dow was up 0.6%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.3%. The S&P 500 decreased 0.1% with five of 11 sectors finishing in negative territory. The Financials sector was the top performer, rising 1.0%, while the Information Technology sector was the bottom performer, falling 0.7%.
On the data front, initial jobless claims for the week ending September 13 are expected to come in at 240,000, lower than the prior week’s 263,000, while continuing claims are expected to come in at 1.95 million for the week ending September 6, slightly up from the prior week’s 1.94 million. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia will release their September Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey, with the diffusion index of current general activity forecasted to rise to 1.7 from the prior month’s negative 0.3. The Leading Index for August is forecasted to show a decline of 0.2%, versus the prior month’s decrease of 0.1%.
Across the pond, European stocks are higher in mid-day trading as the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee in a 7-2 vote held the bank rate steady at 4.00% during its September meeting. The eurozone’s construction output increased by 0.5% month-over-month (MOM) and 3.2% year-over-year (YOY) in July.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were mixed as Japan’s July core machine orders reported a greater-than-expected decrease of 4.6% MOM and smaller-than-forecasted increase of 4.9% YOY. Meanwhile, employment in Australia fell in August while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% as the country’s labor force participation rate ticked down to 66.8%.
In FOREX trading, the dollar is slightly higher as investors digest the recent central bank meetings.
Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is 0.1% lower at $63.96/barrel despite an unexpected decline in crude oil inventories.
In the metals complex, gold is 0.4% lower at $3,673.20/ounce following a strengthening dollar.
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