Opening Comment — Friday, August 29, 2025
DJIA: 45,636.90, up 71.67
S&P 500: 6,501.86, up 20.46
NASDAQ: 21,705.16, up 115.02
Stocks lower ahead of PCE data
Stock futures are lower Friday morning ahead of today’s personal income, personal spending, and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator (the Federal Reserve’s [Fed’s] preferred gauge of inflation) data for July. As of 7:16 AM ET, the Dow and the S&P 500 Index are both decreasing 0.3%. The Nasdaq 100 is falling 0.5% relative to fair value on the GLOBEX.
U.S. equities were higher on Thursday as the second reading of second-quarter gross domestic product growth was revised higher to a 3.3% annualized pace, while consumer spending came in stronger than previously estimated at a 1.6% annualized pace. Both initial and continuing jobless claims ticked down. Meanwhile, pending home sales for July fell more sharply than forecast on a monthly basis, while posting a stronger-than-expected annual gain. The Dow was up 0.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.5%. The S&P 500 increased 0.3% with seven of 11 sectors finishing in positive territory. The Communication Services sector was the top performer, rising 0.9%, while the Utilities sector was the bottom performer, falling 0.9%.
Technical analysis
None at this time.
On the data front, personal income is expected to have increased 0.4% month-over-month (MOM) in July, versus the prior month’s increase of 0.3%, while personal spending is expected to have increased 0.5% MOM in July compared to the prior month’s increase of 0.3%. The PCE deflator for July is expected to have risen 0.2% MOM, decelerating from the prior month’s 0.3%, but remained steady at 2.6% year-over-year (YOY). Meanwhile, the core PCE deflator for July is expected to have increased 0.3% MOM, similar to the prior month, and accelerated to 2.9% YOY from the prior month’s 2.8%. The advance goods trade balance for July is projected to show a deficit of $90.2 billion, more than the prior month’s revised deficit of $84.9 billion. The preliminary of July reading of wholesale inventories is expected to show an increase of 0.1% MOM, similar to the prior month’s increase, while retail inventories are forecasted to have increased by 0.2% MOM in July, versus the prior month’s increase of 0.3%. The Market News International Chicago purchasing managers’ index for August is expected to come in at 46.0, down from the prior month’s 47.1. The finalized August reading of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan is expected to come in at 58.6, similar to the initial reading, while one-year and 5-10-year inflation expectations are projected to come in at 5.0% and 3.9%, compared to the initial readings of 4.9% and 3.9%, respectively. The Kansas City Fed will release their Services Survey for August.
Across the pond, European stocks are lower in mid-day trading as Germany’s Import Price Index registered larger-than-expected decreases of 0.4% MOM and 1.4% YOY in July, while retail sales and the unemployment change unexpectedly declined. Meanwhile, France’s preliminary August Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% MOM and 0.9% MOM, both coming in below projections, while the country’s Producer Price Index for July climbed 0.4% both MOM and YOY, rebounding from the prior month's revised deflation of 0.1% MOM.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were mixed as South Korea’s industrial production for July registered a stronger-than-expected increase of 0.3% MOM and 5.0% YOY. The Tokyo Consumer Price Index decelerated to 2.6% YOY in August on a headline basis, and to 3.0% on a core basis, with both readings in line with projections. The country’s preliminary industrial production declined more than anticipated in July, while retail sales missed forecasts and the jobless rate fell to 2.3%. Meanwhile, Japanese annualized housing starts stood at 712,000 in July, reflecting a milder-than-expected 9.7% YOY decline.
In FOREX trading, the dollar is higher ahead of the U.S PCE deflator data.
Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is 0.5% lower at $64.26/barrel following ongoing geopolitical tensions.
In the metals complex, gold is 0.2% lower at $3,437.60/ounce following a strengthening dollar.
This content includes material generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence.