Opening Comment — Friday, June 13, 2025
DJIA: 42,967.62, up 101.85
S&P 500: 6,045.26, up 23.02
NASDAQ: 19,662.48, up 46.60
Stocks lower following Israel-Iran conflict
Stock futures are lower Friday morning following Israeli strikes on Iran, which took out military leaders and was responded to by retaliatory strikes from Iran. Investors are also awaiting today’s economic releases, including the preliminary June reading of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan, and looking ahead to next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting. As of 7:16 AM ET, the Dow is decreasing 1.1%, while the S&P 500 is down 1.0%. The Nasdaq 100 is falling 1.2% relative to fair value on the GLOBEX.
U.S. equities were higher on Thursday as both the headline and core Producer Price Index (PPI) for May recorded cooler-than-expected increases of 0.1% month-over-month (MOM) from last month’s revised declines of 0.2%. Meanwhile, the headline PPI accelerated to 2.6% year-over-year (YOY) and the core measure decelerated to 3.0% YOY from last month’s upwardly revised 2.5% and 3.2%, respectively. Both initial jobless claims and continuing claims rose more than forecasted. The Dow was up 0.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite also rose 0.2%. The S&P 500 increased 0.4% with eight of 11 sectors finishing in positive territory. The Utilities sector was the top performer, rising 1.3%, while the Communication Services sector was the bottom performer, falling 0.6%.
Technical analysis
For the S&P 500, as of midday Thursday, the trend is still lower. Resistance is at the all-time high (6144), with support at the 200-day moving average (5805) and 50-day moving average (5662), respectively.
On the data front, the University of Michigan’s preliminary June reading of consumer sentiment is forecasted to come in at 53.6, higher than the prior month’s 52.2. The one- and 5-10-year inflation expectations for June from the University of Michigan are expected to come in at 6.40% and 4.10%, respectively, compared to the prior month’s 6.60% and 4.20%, respectively.
Across the pond, European stocks are lower in mid-day trading as the eurozone’s trade surplus narrowed more than expected in April and its industrial production saw a larger-than-expected decline of 2.4% MOM and a smaller-than-expected increase of 0.8% YOY.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were lower as Japan’s capacity utilization increased by 1.3% MOM in April and its Tertiary Industry Index showed a greater than expected increase of 0.3% MOM in April, compared to prior month’s revised decrease of 1.0%.
In FOREX trading, the dollar is higher as investors await next week’s various central bank meetings, including meetings for central banks of the U.S., England, Japan, China, Switzerland, Sweden, and Norway.
Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is 9.0% higher at $74.14/barrel as investors assess potential supply effects from the conflict in the Middle East.
In the metals complex, gold is 1.1% higher at $3,417.90/ounce despite a strengthening dollar.