Opening Comment — Thursday, July 02, 2026
DJIA: 52,305.24, down 13.96
S&P 500: 7,483.23, down 16.13
NASDAQ: 26,040.03, down 173.69
Stocks mixed ahead of jobs report
Stock futures are mixed Thursday morning ahead of today’s June jobs report, fresh unemployment claims data, and May’s factory orders. Following the holiday weekend, investors will be watching for next week’s release of June’s services purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, scheduled for Monday and Wednesday, respectively. As of 7:19 AM ET, the Dow is rising 0.2%, while the S&P 500 is flat. The Nasdaq 100 is falling 0.4% relative to fair value on the GLOBEX.
U.S. equities were mostly lower on Wednesday following Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments at the European Central Bank’s Forum on Central Banking. The Automatic Data Processing National Employment Report for June showed private payrolls increasing by 98,000, below expectations. The Challenger Report showed job cuts declining 4.5% year-over-year (YOY) in June. Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management’s June manufacturing PMI and the prices paid component declined more than anticipated, coming in at 53.3 and 73.0, respectively. The yield on the 10-year note was up one basis point (0.01%) to 4.48%, while the 30-year bond yield rose two basis points (0.02%) to 4.97%. The Dow was little changed, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.7%. The S&P 500 decreased 0.2% with five of 11 sectors finishing in negative territory. The Communication Services sector was the top performer, rising 2.6%, while the Information Technology sector was the bottom performer, falling 1.8%.
On the data front, June’s nonfarm payrolls are expected to expand by 113,000 versus the prior month’s 172,000, while manufacturing payrolls are projected to increase by 3,000 compared to the prior month’s 7,000. Average hourly earnings are projected to rise 0.3% month-over-month (MOM) and 3.5% YOY for June, compared to the prior month’s increases of 0.3% and 3.4%, respectively. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate and labor force participation rate for June are expected to remain unchanged at 4.3% and 61.8%, respectively. Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 27 are expected to come in at 218,000, higher than the prior week’s 215,000, while continuing claims are expected to come in at 1.820 million for the week ending June 20, down slightly from the prior week’s 1.821 million. May’s factory orders are expected to have decreased 2.0% MOM versus the prior month’s increase of 4.8%. Meanwhile, May’s finalized durable goods orders are expected to show a 4.5% MOM decrease, unchanged from the preliminary reading.
Across the pond, European stocks are higher in mid-day trading as the eurozone’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.2% in May, coming in below expectations and following a downward revision to the prior month's reading. Meanwhile, France recorded a year-to-date budget deficit of €93.3 billion ($106.5 billion) in May, widening from €69.6 billion ($79.4 billion) in April.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were mixed as South Korea’s Consumer Price Index eased to 0.1% MOM and accelerated to 3.2% YOY in June, in line with expectations. Japan's monetary base for June decreased 13.7% YOY, compared to the prior month’s decrease of 12.2%. Meanwhile, Australia unexpectedly recorded a trade deficit in May, driven by a 6.9% MOM decline in exports and a 2.6% MOM increase in imports.
In FOREX trading, the U.S. dollar is lower ahead of today’s U.S jobs report data.
Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is 1.4% lower at $67.60/barrel.
In the metals complex, gold is 0.8% higher at $4,064.13/ounce following a weakening U.S. dollar.