Opening Comment — Wednesday, April 30, 2025
DJIA: 40,527.62, up 300.03
S&P 500: 5,560.83, up 32.08
NASDAQ: 17,461.32, up 95.19
Stocks mixed ahead of GDP and inflation data
Stock futures are mixed Wednesday morning ahead of today’s economic releases, including the advance reading of first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) and March’s personal income, personal spending, and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator data. As of 7:25 AM ET, the Dow is rising 0.1%, while the S&P 500 is down 0.3%. The Nasdaq 100 is falling 0.5% relative to fair value on the GLOBEX.
U.S. equities were higher on Tuesday as the advance goods trade deficit unexpectedly widened as job openings fell more than forecasted and consumer confidence fell to the lowest level since the pandemic. Meanwhile, the preliminary March reading of wholesale inventories showed a slightly less than anticipated increase, while measures of home prices for February came in at or below expectations. The Dow was up 0.8%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.6%. The S&P 500 increased 0.6% with 10 of 11 sectors finishing in positive territory. The Financials sector was the top performer, rising 1.0%, while the Energy sector was the bottom performer, falling 0.4%.
On the data front, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s gauge of mortgage applications decreased by 4.2% for the week ending April 25 versus the prior week’s decrease of 12.7%. The Automatic Data Processing Employment Change Report for April is expected to show private nonfarm job gains of 115,000, versus the prior month’s 155,000. The advance reading of first-quarter GDP is forecasted to show an annualized contraction of 0.2% versus the prior quarter’s 2.4% annualized growth, while the advance reading of the first-quarter GDP Price Index, the core PCE Price Index, and personal consumption are expected to come in at annualized increases of 3.1%, 3.1%, and 1.2%, respectively, compared to the prior readings of 2.3%, 2.6%, and 4.0%, respectively. The first-quarter Employment Cost Index is expected to rise by 0.9%, similar to the previous reading. The Market News International Chicago purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for April is expected to come in at 45.9, down from the prior month’s 47.6. Personal income is expected to have increased 0.4% month-over-month (MOM) in March, versus the prior month’s 0.8%, while personal spending is expected have increased 0.6% MOM in March compared to the prior month’s 0.4% increase. The PCE deflator for March is expected to be flat MOM and decelerate to 2.2% year-over-year (YOY) from the prior month’s 0.3% and 2.5%, respectively. Meanwhile, the core PCE deflator for March is expected to have increased 0.1% MOM, decelerating from the prior month’s 0.4%, and eased to 2.6% YOY from the prior month’s 2.8%. Pending home sales for March are expected to have increased 1.0% MOM and declined 5.7% year-over-year (YOY), versus the prior month’s 2.0% increase and decline of 7.2%, respectively. The Department of Energy’s measure of crude oil inventories is expected to have decreased by 579,000 barrels for the week ending April 25 versus the prior week’s increase of 244,000 barrels.
Across the pond, European stocks are mixed in mid-day trading as the preliminary reading of first-quarter eurozone GDP showed a 0.4% quarter-over-quarter (QOQ) increase, with France and Germany eking out QOQ growth rates of 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively. The French preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April accelerated more than expected, rising 0.5% during the month. Germany’s unemployment change came in lower than projected in April, though the unemployment claims rate remained steady at 6.3%.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were mixed following China’s official April manufacturing PMI falling into contractionary territory, while the country’s private manufacturing PMI from Caixin for April fell but remained in expansionary territory. South Korea’s industrial production increased more than forecasted in March. Japan’s preliminary industrial production declined in March, while the country’s retail sales rose 3.1% YOY, below expectations. Australia’s first quarter CPI came in slightly above projections.
In FOREX trading, the dollar is higher ahead of today’s advance reading of U.S. first-quarter GDP and March inflation data.
Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is 1.0% lower at $59.83/barrel despite an expected decline in reported crude oil inventories.
In the metals complex, gold is 1.4% lower at $3,288.00/ounce following a strengthening dollar.