Opening Comment — Thursday, July 30, 2026
DJIA: 51,594.14, down 1,153.18
S&P 500: 7,316.15, down 112.63
NASDAQ: 24,442.94, down 433.97
Stocks higher before consumption data
Stock futures are higher Thursday morning as investors are focused on today’s key economic releases, including June personal income, personal spending, and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Deflator (the Federal Reserve’s [Fed’s] preferred gauge of inflation) data, as well as the advance reading of second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP). Investors are also assessing renewed fighting between the U.S. and Iran. As of 7:25 AM ET, the Dow is rising 0.4%, while the S&P 500 is up 0.6%. The Nasdaq 100 is increasing 1.3% relative to fair value on the GLOBEX.
U.S. equities were lower on Wednesday following the Fed keeping their target rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in a 9-3 vote, with the dissenters favoring a 25-basis point (0.25%) hike instead. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the bank remained committed to fighting inflation, though declined to provide forward guidance. The Dow was down 2.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 1.7%. The S&P 500 decreased 1.5% with eight of 11 sectors finishing in negative territory. The Energy sector was the top performer, rising 2.0%, while the Industrials sector was the bottom performer, falling 3.2%.
On the data front, personal income is expected to have increased 0.3% month-over-month (MOM) in June, slower than the prior month’s 0.7%, while personal spending is expected to have increased 0.4% MOM, also easing from the prior month’s 0.7%. The PCE deflator for June is expected to have decreased 0.1% MOM and increased 3.7% year-over-year (YOY), versus the prior month’s increases of 0.4% and 4.1%, respectively. Meanwhile, the core PCE deflator for June is expected to have decelerated to 0.2% MOM and 3.3% YOY, from the prior month’s 0.3% and 3.4% YOY, respectively. The advance reading of second-quarter GDP, the GDP Price Index, the core PCE Price Index, and personal consumption are expected to come in at annualized growth rates of 2.0%, 4.0%, 3.5%, and 2.3%, respectively, compared to the prior quarter’s annualized increases of 2.1%, 3.6%, 4.4%, and 0.5%, respectively. Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 25 are expected to come in at 200,000, higher than the prior week’s 187,000, while continuing jobless claims for the week ending July 18 are projected to come in at 1.795 million, slightly lower than the prior week’s 1.796 million.
Across the pond, European stocks are higher in mid-day trading as the Bank of England left their policy rate unchanged in a 6-3 vote. France’s preliminary second-quarter GDP grew 0.2% quarter-over-quarter (QOQ) as projected and 0.7% year-over-year (YOY), while Germany’s preliminary second-quarter GDP rose 0.2% QOQ and 0.9% YOY, exceeding forecasts. Meanwhile, the eurozone’s advance estimate for second-quarter GDP showed stronger-than-expected growth of 0.4% QOQ and 1.0% YOY, while the unemployment rate held steady at 6.3% in June, following upward revisions to the prior month’s data.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were mixed as Australia’s June building approvals unexpectedly increased 7.2% MOM in June. The country’s Export Price Index and Import Price Index showed higher-than-projected increases of 1.1% and 5.7% QOQ, respectively. Japan’s July consumer confidence index rose more than expected to 34.9, compared to the prior month’s 33.8.
In FOREX trading, the U.S. dollar is lower ahead of today’s U.S. PCE and GDP data.
Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is 1.2% lower at $83.45/barrel.
In the metals complex, gold is 0.3% higher at $4,078.56/ounce following a weakening U.S. dollar.