Opening Comment — Tuesday, May 12, 2026
DJIA: 49,704.47, up 95.31
S&P 500: 7,412.84, up 13.91
NASDAQ: 26,274.13, up 27.05
Stocks lower ahead of CPI data
Stock futures are lower Tuesday morning as investors are awaiting today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Federal budget balance data for April. Meanwhile, a reading of small business optimism increased less than expected. As of 7:15 AM ET, the Dow is decreasing 0.1%, while the S&P 500 is down 0.4%. The Nasdaq 100 is falling 0.9% relative to fair value on the GLOBEX.
U.S. equities were higher on Monday following President Donald Trump’s decision not to accept Tehran’s counterproposal to his peace plan, with President Trump also commenting on the fragility of the ceasefire. Meanwhile, existing home sales in April rose slightly to an annualized 4.02 million, undershooting expectations and barely above March’s revised 4.01 million pace. The Dow was up 0.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.1% and hit a new record closing level of 26274.13. The S&P 500 increased 0.2% and set a new record closing level of 7412.84, with six of 11 sectors finishing in positive territory. The Energy sector was the top performer, rising 2.6%, while the Communication Services sector was the bottom performer, falling 2.3%.
On the data front, the National Federation of Independent Business’s Small Business Optimism Index increased to 95.9 in April from the prior month’s 95.8. The headline CPI for April is expected to show price increases of 0.6% month-over-month (MOM) and 3.7% year-over-year (YOY) versus the prior month’s increases of 0.9% and 3.3%, respectively. Meanwhile, core CPI is expected to show price increases of 0.3% MOM and 2.7% YOY, versus the prior month’s increases of 0.2% and 2.6%, respectively. April data on average hourly and weekly earnings is also scheduled for release, as is the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of New York's first-quarter Report on Household Debt and Credit. The U.S. federal budget balance for April is expected to show a surplus of $220.0 billion versus the prior month’s deficit of $164.1 billion.
Across the pond, European stocks are lower in mid-day trading as ZEW measures of economic growth expectations for both the eurozone and Germany improved in May. Meanwhile, Germany’s finalized April CPI was unchanged from the preliminary release, showing headline inflation rising 2.9% YOY and 0.6% MOM.
Overnight in Asia, stocks were mixed as Japan’s household spending declined more than expected in March, falling 2.9% YOY. National Australia Bank’s measure of business confidence for April improved. Meanwhile, Japan’s preliminary March composite leading index ticked up.
In FOREX trading, the U.S. dollar is higher ahead of this week’s U.S. inflation data, starting with today’s April CPI.
Over in the commodity pits, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is 3.6% higher at $101.63/barrel against a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty.
In the metals complex, gold is 0.9% lower at $4,693.52/ounce following a strengthening U.S. dollar.