FOMC Meeting: Key Takeaways

March FOMC meeting | March 18, 2026

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC or the Committee) left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% – 3.75%. The FOMC stated that available indicators suggest economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace while job gains have remained low. The Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue purchases of shorter-term Treasury securities to maintain an ample supply of reserves.

• Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• In support of its goals, the Committee left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75%. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate (price stability and full employment).

• In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

• The Fed leaving the federal funds rate unchanged at today’s meeting was expected by markets. There was one Fed governor that dissented: Stephen Miran, who would have preferred to lower the rate by 0.25%. No Fed governors had a preference to raise rates.
• The official statement was little changed from the January statement. The Summary of Economic Projections was released, which looks at FOMC members’ future expectations of the economy and the federal funds rate. The median federal funds forecast for 2026 was unchanged, implying one rate cut before year-end 2026. Change in GDP and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation expectations increased slightly for 2026 from 2.3% to 2.4% and 2.5% to 2.7%, respectively. The median change forecast in the unemployment rates was unchanged for 2026 at 4.4%.
• In our opinion, the uncertain geopolitical environment may inject more uncertainty into the ultimate path of the federal funds rate. For now it appears that any potential Fed rate cuts are on hold until later this year or next. Ultimately the economic data will impact the timing of any Fed rate cuts. The Fed stated that the implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain.
• The Committee continues to judge that reserve balances have declined to ample levels and will maintain purchases of shorter-term Treasury securities as needed to maintain an ample supply of reserves on an ongoing basis.

• April 29 | June 17* | July 29 | September 16* | October 28 | December 9*
  

  *Indicates the meeting is associated with a summary of economic projections. In addition, every meeting will be accompanied by a press conference.

Forecasts and targets are based on certain assumptions and on views of market and economic conditions which are subject to change.

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