FOMC Meeting: Key Takeaways

June FOMC meeting | June 17, 2026

In Kevin Warsh’s first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC, or the Committee) meeting as Chair, the Committee held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75%. The FOMC noted that recent economic activity is expanding at a solid pace, while inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal. The Federal Reserve (Fed) also reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.

• Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little. Inflation remains somewhat elevated reflecting supply shocks and energy constraints.
• In support of its goals, the Committee left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75%. The Committee stated that it will deliver price stability.

• In our view, the Fed will continue to remain on hold, allowing more time and flexibility to navigate the uncertainties between economic growth, labor market strength, and inflation risks given supply-driven shocks.

• The Fed leaving the federal funds rate unchanged at today’s meeting was expected by markets. This rate decision was unanimous, following significant disagreement during the April meeting.
• The official statement has an increased focus on economic uncertainty and a greater focus on the threat posed by price instability from the April statement. The Summary of Economic Projections was released, which looks at FOMC members’ future expectations of the economy and the federal funds rate.
• The median federal funds forecast for 2026 increased, implying the potential for one rate hike before year-end 2026. Gross domestic product (GDP) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation expectations saw notable changes for 2026 from 2.4% to 2.2% and 2.7% to 3.6%, respectively.
• The median change forecast in the unemployment rates decreased slightly for 2026 from 4.4% to 4.3%.
• In our opinion, the uncertain geopolitical environment may inject more uncertainty into the ultimate path of the federal funds rate. This statement from the Committee shows that a growing number of members favor a more neutral or hawkish bias, supporting our outlook for no federal fund rate changes this year. Ultimately, the economic data will impact the timing of any move higher or lower in policy rates.

• July 29 | September 16* | October 28 | December 9*
  

  *Indicates the meeting is associated with a summary of economic projections. In addition, every meeting will be accompanied by a press conference.

Forecasts and targets are based on certain assumptions and on views of market and economic conditions which are subject to change.

All investing involves risks including the possible loss of principal. Investments in fixed-income securities are subject to interest rate, credit/default, liquidity, inflation, and other risks. Bond prices fluctuate inversely to changes in interest rates. Therefore, a general rise in interest rates can result in the decline in the bond’s price. If sold prior to maturity, fixed income securities are subject to market risk. All fixed income investments may be worth less than their original cost upon redemption or maturity. Although Treasuries are considered free from credit risk, they are subject to other types of risks. These risks include interest rate risk, which may cause the underlying value of the bond to fluctuate.

Global Investment Strategy (GIS) is a division of Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Inc. (WFII). WFII is a registered investment adviser and wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank, N.A., a bank affiliate of Wells Fargo & Company.

The information in this report was prepared by Global Investment Strategy. Opinions represent GIS’ opinion as of the date of this report and are for general information purposes only and are not intended to predict or guarantee the future performance of any individual security, market sector or the markets generally. GIS does not undertake to advise you of any change in its opinions or the information contained in this report. Wells Fargo & Company affiliates may issue reports or have opinions that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, this report.

The information contained herein constitutes general information and is not directed to, designed for, or individually tailored to, any particular investor or potential investor. This report is not intended to be a client-specific suitability or best interest analysis or recommendation, an offer to participate in any investment, or a recommendation to buy, hold or sell securities. Do not use this report as the sole basis for investment decisions. Do not select an asset class or investment product based on performance alone. Consider all relevant information, including your existing portfolio, investment objectives, risk tolerance, liquidity needs and investment time horizon.

Wells Fargo Advisors is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, but is not licensed or registered with any financial services regulatory authority outside of the U.S. Non-U.S. residents who maintain U.S.-based financial services account(s) with Wells Fargo Advisors may not be afforded certain protections conferred by legislation and regulations in their country of residence in respect of any investments, investment transactions or communications made with Wells Fargo Advisors.

Wells Fargo Advisors is a trade name used by Wells Fargo Clearing Services, LLC and Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network, LLC, Members SIPC, separate registered broker-dealers and non-bank affiliates of Wells Fargo & Company.